What Will Decide PayPal Stock Over The Next Six Months?
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Over the past year, PayPal (PYPL) stock lost 16.4%, while the S&P 500 returned 16.5%. During its July 28, 2026 call, management raised its full-year guidance and committed to at least $1.5 billion in yearly gross cost savings over the next two to three years. The company is spending more on growth before those savings arrive. Below are the events most likely to move PayPal stock over the next six months, soonest first.
| What to watch | When | Which way it cuts |
|---|---|---|
| Growth spending runs ahead of the cost savings | fiscal Q3 2026 (July to September 2026) | Against the stock |
| PayPal reports fiscal Q3 2026 results | October 2026 | Either way |
| Cost savings become more meaningful | fiscal Q4 2026 (October to December 2026) | In its favour |
| About $6 billion of share buybacks planned for 2026 | fiscal 2026 (through December 2026) | In its favour |
| PayPal reports fiscal Q4 2026 and full-year 2026 results | February 2027 | Either way |
PayPal’s Report For Fiscal Q3 2026
PayPal is expected to report its fiscal Q3 2026 results in October 2026. Management has already guided to a weaker quarter for profit. It expects adjusted earnings per share to fall by a low single-digit percentage from a year earlier, while operating costs outside transactions grow at a high single-digit rate. The part of the business to follow is online branded checkout, which happens when shoppers pick PayPal itself at an online store. Its payment volume grew 2% in fiscal Q2 2026 on a currency-neutral basis, and management expects low single-digit growth for the full year. That volume growth is the number to check when the October report comes out.
The Cost Savings Due In Fiscal Q4 2026
Management said in July 2026 that it expects its cost savings to become more meaningful in fiscal Q4 2026. The company has identified actions, due to finish by the end of 2026, that could bring about $400 million of yearly gross savings. Part of that amount would land in the fourth quarter. The work is already underway. PayPal is shifting from its own data centers to the cloud. Under the plan, the company cut about 220 jobs in India, Reuters reported on September 3, 2026, citing a source. Management expects operating costs outside transactions to grow 7% to 8% in 2026. Those costs are the figure to watch in the February 2027 report, the first to cover the fourth quarter.
PayPal’s Full-Year 2026 Results
PayPal is expected to report fiscal Q4 2026 and its full-year results in February 2027. That report will show whether PayPal met the full-year guidance it raised in July. Management now expects adjusted earnings per share of $5.38 for 2026. It also expects transaction margin, what PayPal keeps from payments after their costs, to reach about $15.6 billion for the year. The guidance implies only slightly positive growth in transaction margin for fiscal Q4 2026. That quarter’s transaction margin growth is the figure to watch in February 2027.
Can You Hold PayPal Stock Through These Dates?
PayPal stock fell 46.5% in the months after its October 28, 2025 close, bottoming on February 12, 2026. The hardest stretch came around the company’s February 3, 2026 earnings call, when the shares lost 21.6% over two sessions. Two more reports land in the next six months. You would want the case management laid out to hold: savings that reach costs from fiscal Q4 2026, and online branded checkout volume that keeps growing. If you hold through the October 2026 and February 2027 reports, keep the position small enough that another 21.6% fall around a report would not force you to sell.
How To Act On PYPL?
Not necessarily on PayPal alone, if your goal is long-term wealth. Wealth is built by owning the companies that keep outperforming, the leaders of their industries, wherever they are. In PayPal’s own industry, Visa stock rose 84% and Mastercard stock rose 80% over the five years to October 2026, while PayPal stock fell 76%.
Finding companies like these takes comparison across industries and sectors, and that is what the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio does. It holds 30 quality companies in equal weight and, since its inception in September 2020, has returned more than 105%, ahead of a benchmark that combines the S&P 500, S&P Mid-cap and Russell 2000. See how we find the leaders.
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