What Could Surprise Costco Stock Investors On The Upside?

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Costco Wholesale (COST) stock returned 7.3% over the past year, compared with 16.5% for the S&P 500. Investors hoping for more run into a basic math problem. Costco generated $303 billion of revenue over its latest fiscal year, so a new business must be very large before it registers in the overall totals. Yet one part of Costco is growing about twice as fast as the company. So which part is it, and how far has it come?

Costco’s Digital Sales Are Growing Twice As Fast

That fast-growing segment is digital. Costco’s digitally enabled sales, a measure that includes orders handled by third-party delivery services, exceeded $33 billion in fiscal 2026. The category grew more than 20%, compared with 10.1% for Costco’s total revenue over the same year.

The latest quarter displayed the same performance gap. During fiscal Q4 2026, Costco’s digitally enabled comparable sales rose 19.5%, compared with 9.4% for all of its comparable sales.

Costco’s newest digital push is only weeks old, meaning its impact is still ahead. In the weeks before its September 24, 2026 earnings call, Costco announced that its Uber Eats partnership is expanding from 17 states to the entire U.S. Management also said its DoorDash partnership now covers the U.S. as well. Separately, management said website traffic originating from AI search grew by triple digits for a second consecutive quarter, adding that those visits convert into orders at a higher rate than any other traffic to the site.

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How Big Is Digital Next To All Of Costco?

Digitally enabled sales accounted for about 11% of Costco’s revenue in fiscal 2026. That makes digital a large business operating inside a much larger one. At Costco’s current scale, the online segment adds to growth rather than changing what the company is.

The share price appears to assume Costco keeps growing faster than the market. Costco stock trades at 48.0 times its earnings over the past twelve months, compared with 23.0 for the S&P 500. The shares closed on October 21, 2026, sitting 8.6% below their highest close of the past year, reached on May 19, 2026. The 48.0 multiple is already measured at that lower price, and faster digital growth is one way Costco could live up to it.

What Does Costco’s Online Push Still Have To Prove?

Costco still has to show that delivery brings in members who spend more over time. During the fiscal Q4 2026 call, management was asked whether third-party delivery serves as Costco’s long-term answer for delivery. Management called the option a great addition and said the people who use it most tend to be younger customers.

That usage ties delivery to Costco’s younger members. Management said its base of members under 40 has grown nearly 60% since COVID and now makes up more than a quarter of all members. Younger shoppers start out spending a little less, management noted, but they grow into higher-spending members over time, so the payoff comes gradually as those members spend more.

Costco has also eliminated one online offering. The company recently discontinued its extended marketplace, Costco Next, noting that the change is not material to its results. Management said it believes moving the most popular Costco Next items into the Costco app and website will give members a better experience and increase sales.

Costco is expected to report its next quarterly results in December 2026, and growth in digitally enabled comparable sales is the number to watch.

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