What Could Stop CVS Health Stock Over The Next Six Months?
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CVS Health (CVS) stock has returned 24.3% over the past six months, compared with 9.8% for the S&P 500. In August, CVS raised its 2026 profit forecast. On the same August call, the company warned that its 340B business will be a headwind in 2027 and that it expects Caremark to lose members, partly because some health plan customers are cutting products and leaving markets.
| What to watch | When | Which way it cuts |
|---|---|---|
| CVS reports fiscal Q3 2026 and sets out its 2027 headwinds and tailwinds | on or around November 4, 2026 (fiscal Q3 2026 report) | Either way |
| The 340B business turns into a headwind for Pharmacy Services | during 2027 | Against the stock |
| Caremark loses members | during 2027 | Against the stock |
| Medicare Advantage bonus payments are set by 2026 star ratings, with fewer members in four-star plans | during 2027 | Against the stock |
| CVS reports fiscal Q4 2026 and gives full 2027 guidance | on or around February 8, 2027 (fiscal Q4 2026 report) | Either way |
CVS Health’s First Look At 2027 On November 4
CVS is expected to report its fiscal Q3 2026 results on or around November 4, 2026. The company said it would use the call to outline headwinds and tailwinds for 2027. Investors will get the full 2027 guidance during the fiscal Q4 2026 call, expected on or around February 8, 2027. In August, executives said an outlook of at least $8.44 of adjusted earnings per share for 2027 looked reasonable. They called this about 13% growth off an adjusted baseline of $7.46. The company offered that view on the same call where it flagged the 340B and Caremark pressures. On November 4, watch the size executives put on each 2027 headwind they name.
The dates ahead matter most when CVS Health is a large share of what you own. See how to protect a concentrated position.
The 340B Headwind In Pharmacy Services
CVS expects the market dynamics in its 340B business to continue and become a headwind for its Pharmacy Services business in 2027. During the fiscal Q2 2026 call, executives said that drugmakers are imposing restrictions on covered entities, and that this led to some of the pressure CVS saw in that quarter. When asked how the company would offset the headwind, leadership pointed to the specialty pharmacy business, which they said continues to perform exceptionally well. They added that CVS Specialty patients stick to their medicines at a rate above 90%, compared with an industry standard of 80%. The company declined to size the 340B headwind at the time, so on November 4 watch whether executives now put a number on it.
Aetna’s Medicare Advantage Star Ratings
CVS stated in its latest annual report that its Medicare Advantage plans will qualify for bonus payments in 2027 if they hold four stars or higher in the 2026 star ratings. More than 81% of its Medicare Advantage members were in plans rated that high, compared with 88% a year before. The raised 2026 forecast CVS issued in August reflected 2026 bonus payments for its highly rated government health plans, Reuters reported. On October 9, 2026, Barron’s reported that Aetna, the insurance arm of CVS Health, saw its four-star or higher plans lose ground in the latest federal ratings. These ratings are newer than the 2026 ratings that set the 2027 bonuses. On November 4, watch whether executives list the drop from 88% to just over 81% of members in four-star plans among the 2027 headwinds.
Could You Hold CVS Health Stock Through These Dates?
Owning CVS over the past six months meant sitting through a 23.1% fall in the share price between July 21 and September 24, 2026. The worst day in that stretch was August 5, the day of the last earnings call, when the stock fell 5.1%. Two more reports land in the next six months, arriving on November 4 and February 8. Any position you hold through those dates should be one you could watch fall that far again without selling.
For that risk to be worth taking, executives would need to fit the 340B, Caremark and star rating pressures inside the 2027 earnings outlook they provide across those two calls.
Is Too Much Of Your Wealth Riding On One Stock?
The next six months hold several dates that could move CVS Health sharply. When one position grows into a large part of your wealth, a sharp fall can hurt your whole plan, and selling to spread the money out can bring a large tax bill. Our partner advisory firm offers a free strategy review of ways to protect a concentrated position and unwind it with less tax.
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