Which Dates Could Move Exxon Mobil Stock Most?
Exxon Mobil (XOM) stock returned 65.8% over the past year, against 17.4% for the S&P 500, with the company drawing help from its markets. On the July 31 call, management said the market benefit was real, and that higher-than-planned prices had sped up how quickly Exxon and its partners recovered their Guyana investment. Below are the events most likely to move Exxon Mobil stock over the next six months.
| What to watch | When | Which way it cuts |
|---|---|---|
| Exxon Mobil’s fiscal Q3 2026 results | October 30, 2026 | Either way |
| Start-up of Errea Wittu, the fifth production vessel in Guyana | by the end of 2026 | In its favor |
| Investment decisions on projects in Mozambique and Papua New Guinea | before the end of 2026 | Either way |
| Exxon Mobil’s fiscal Q4 2026 results | January 28, 2027 (expected on or around) | Either way |
| The Middle East conflict and Exxon’s lost upstream output | no date stated | Either way |
| Windfall taxes on refining in Europe, raised on the July 31 call | no date stated | Against the stock |
Third-Quarter Results On October 30
Exxon Mobil will report its fiscal Q3 2026 results on October 30, 2026. The release follows a second quarter in which net income more than doubled, jumping to $14.5 billion from $7.08 billion a year earlier. Refining is the business to follow. Exxon reports the operation as Energy Products, and management said its share of the company’s earnings has more than doubled over five years. On the July 31 call, management said it expects refining margins to stay very high.
How Middle East Conflict Affects Exxon Mobil
The conflict in the Middle East has no end date, and Exxon Mobil has felt the impact from both sides. Exxon temporarily lost about 10% of its upstream production in fiscal Q2 2026. Yet management tied the same disruption to an unusually tight market. Leaving aside COVID, when demand vanished, the company said it had never seen available capacity so low against demand. Management also expects ships to stay wary of moving through the region. Upstream production in the October 30 report is the measure to watch.
Exxon Mobil’s Fifth Production Vessel In Guyana
Exxon Mobil’s fifth floating production vessel in Guyana, Errea Wittu, is due to start up by the end of 2026. Management said on the July 31 call that the vessel had set sail in June and remained on track. It arrived in Guyana on August 21 and is now in final commissioning. Errea Wittu joins an operation that has already paid for itself. Management said Exxon and its Stabroek partners have recovered the roughly $55 billion invested in Guyana, along with operating costs. After royalty and cost recovery, which is capped at 75% of production, the remaining oil is shared 50-50 with the government of Guyana. You will know whether Errea Wittu is running by the fiscal Q4 2026 report, expected on or around January 28, 2027.
Could You Hold Exxon Mobil Stock Through These Dates?
To hold the stock through these dates, you need to be ready for a fall like the one it took this spring. In 2026, the stock’s largest peak-to-trough decline was about 20%, running from its late-March high into late June. If a fall that size, lasting that long, would make you sell, a smaller holding is one you could keep through a repeat.
Does This Mean You Should Act On XOM?
Our purpose is to inform you with unique data so you make the right investment decisions. That said, betting on a single stock is always risky, no matter which direction you choose.
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