Where Could McDonald’s Next Growth Come From?
McDonald’s (MCD) shares have lost about 20% over the twelve months to October 9, 2026, while the S&P 500 gained about 17%. The U.S. market has been the weak spot. Executives acknowledged on their August 4 call that the domestic business struggled with execution during the second quarter. Yet that same discussion highlighted a new addition to the U.S. menu that is currently beating the company’s internal plan. So what is it, and is it big enough to matter?
McDonald’s New Drinks Are Ahead Of Plan At Home
The bright spot is a new beverage lineup featuring cold coffee, crafted sodas, refreshers and energy drinks. On the August 4 call, management noted that U.S. sales for the line are running ahead of plan and that guest checks are higher. The average check on these new drinks is about 50% above the average check across the full day.
These beverages also sell at a useful time of day. More than half of the traffic comes after lunch, management said, when restaurants operate with lower volume and more capacity. As a result, the drinks may be attracting visits during otherwise quiet hours, on top of the bigger orders. The rollout remains in its early stages. Germany was the only market selling the full range during the second quarter, while the U.S. offered only a partial menu.
McDonald’s Home Market Is The Slower-Growing One
Drinks represent one product line at a company that generated $27.7 billion in revenue over the last twelve months. This makes the rollout an incremental addition to sales rather than a new standalone business, but it matters more to the U.S. operations. The United States segment brought in $10.8 billion in fiscal 2025, accounting for 40% of revenue that year. The domestic market grew 1.8% that year, lagging behind the 8.0% growth posted by International Operated Markets, the largest segment.
McDonald’s has a track record of scaling additions into major operations. The company’s delivery business now generates more than $20 billion a year in system-wide sales, a metric distinct from the $27.7 billion in total company revenue.
The stock is priced for modest growth overall. As of October 8, 2026, McDonald’s trades at 19.1 times earnings, compared with 21.5 for the S&P 500. The shares are about 31% below their 52-week high of $341.75.
Will McDonald’s Franchisees Go Along With The Plan?
Some U.S. franchisees are already pushing back. The drinks rollout is just one component of a broader strategy McDonald’s outlined at its Investor Day on September 23, which also includes chicken and new restaurant equipment. Bloomberg reported on October 7 that U.S. franchisees face upgrades costing at least $800,000 per location, and that the bill is causing angst.
McDonald’s has offered assistance. The company plans to provide about $8.5 billion in franchisee support through 2036, utilizing rent relief and capital contributions. Still, the shares fell more than 4% on the morning the plan was announced.
The McDonald’s U.S. system also did not fully follow a recent plan. Only about 60% to 65% of the U.S. network adopted the recommended prices on a new value menu, management noted on the August 4 call. Executives estimated that about two-thirds of the customer traffic shortfall against expectations for the quarter came from weak execution on value. U.S. comparable sales grew 0.8% in the second quarter and turned slightly negative in July. U.S. comparable sales growth above the second quarter’s 0.8% in the upcoming third-quarter report would offer the first sign that the domestic business is growing faster again.
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