How Much Downside Is Left In MARA Stock?

Shares of MARA (MARA) have shed 16.9% over the past month, diverging from a 1.8% gain in the S&P 500. Peers Riot Platforms and Cleanspark fell even further over the same month. The recent slide extends a longer downturn for MARA, which is now down 51% over twelve months despite a rising broader market. How far has MARA stock fallen in the past when the whole market fell too?

How Much Has MARA Lost When Markets Sold Off?

Historically, MARA stock has lost 49.4% on average during the market selloffs it has traded through. By comparison, the S&P 500 gave up just 13.0% over the same periods.

The company’s second-deepest drop during these periods occurred amid the 2022 inflation shock as the Fed tightened monetary policy. MARA stock lost 84% then, far exceeding the 24% decline in the S&P 500.

Despite these steep declines, MARA eventually returned to its earlier high after nine of the eleven shocks. Investors waited a median of 3.3 months from the low to see a full recovery. The slowest rebound took 44 months following a 2016-2017 fall, a period that included a one-day break in the share price. However, the company has yet to recover from two shocks. It remains 94% below its high from before the 2014-2016 oil collapse, and 71% below its high from before the 2022 selloff.

MARA’s Quarterly Revenue Is Falling And Losses Are Growing

MARA mines Bitcoin, but its quarterly revenue has now fallen from a year earlier three times in a row. These declines have accelerated each quarter, widening from 5.6% to 26.7% in the latest one.

At the same time, the company is losing more than it takes in. Over the last twelve months, its operating loss equaled 126% of revenue, a stark increase from 76% a year earlier.

The balance sheet is also under pressure. Debt at MARA stands at 64.2% of its market value, well above the 21.0% for the S&P 500. Furthermore, the company has heavily diluted its equity. The share count has grown 126.5% in three years, meaning each share now represents a significantly smaller slice of the business.

MARA Borrows Against Bitcoin As Per-Coin Mining Cost Rises

MARA is leveraging its cryptocurrency assets. On its earnings call of August 6, 2026, management said the company added $600 million in loans secured by its Bitcoin holdings. 54% of its Bitcoin is now pledged as collateral. Beyond these new loans, MARA expects to take over about $900 million of debt owed by Long Ridge, a company it is acquiring.

The underlying economics of mining are tightening as well. It is now costing MARA more to mine each Bitcoin, even though its daily cost per petahash improved 4% from a year earlier. In the second quarter, the energy MARA bought to mine one Bitcoin at its own sites cost $38,700, climbing from $33,700 a year earlier. Management attributed the whole increase to rising difficulty across the Bitcoin network, a factor it called outside its control.

Meanwhile, the company is realizing less value from the coins it generates. Management noted that a 28% lower average Bitcoin price cut second-quarter revenue by $65.9 million from a year earlier. An uptick in Bitcoin production added $7.2 million over the same period.

Looking ahead, MARA wants to rent its power sites to AI customers. Management said it was confident of signing at least two leases before the end of 2026. However, if the company secures fewer than two agreements by that deadline, its move beyond Bitcoin mining will fall behind management’s own timetable.

Does This Mean You Should Act On MARA?

Our purpose is to inform you with unique data so you make the right investment decisions. That said, betting on a single stock is always risky, no matter which direction you choose.

There is a smarter approach. Since its inception, the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio has returned 105%, beating the benchmark that combines the three major indices – the S&P 500, S&P Mid-cap, and Russell 2000. And it did so without taking the concentrated risk that comes with do-it-yourself stock picking. If that is how you want to invest, the HQ Portfolio is the place to start.