The Single Most Important Metric For AST SpaceMobile Stock
Investors evaluating AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) must weigh a stark contrast in its valuation. The company is still losing money, with a net loss of about $0.6 billion over the last twelve months, and its shares sit 57.2% below their 52-week high. Even so, the stock trades at 147.7 times sales, compared to a multiple of 3.0 for the S&P 500. That premium suggests buyers may be betting on the number of BlueBird satellites in orbit. So, how many satellites does AST SpaceMobile have, and how many does it need?
13 Spacecraft In Orbit, 45 To 60 Needed
Management reported on its fiscal Q2 2026 earnings call on August 10, 2026, that AST SpaceMobile had 13 spacecraft in orbit. The company believes it needs about 45 to 60 BlueBird satellites to provide continuous service across markets such as the United States, Europe, and Japan. Executives have set a target of about 45 in orbit by early 2027.
This orbital footprint is central to the underlying business model. AST SpaceMobile is developing a cellular broadband network in space designed to function with everyday unmodified mobile phones. The company has partnered with more than 60 phone carriers, providing access to a base of over 3 billion subscribers.
However, the commercial phone service is not yet driving revenue. The company recorded $31.5 million in revenue during fiscal Q2 2026, which came from U.S. government contracts and infrastructure work for its carrier partners. Over the last twelve months, AST SpaceMobile posted about $0.1 billion in revenue, but management has a goal of revenue approaching $1 billion in its first year of commercial service. Buyers at current prices appear to be paying for revenue that begins only once enough satellites are in place.
Can AST SpaceMobile Afford The Satellites It Still Needs?
Executives maintain the company has the necessary funding. Even so, finances remain a central concern for the stock. A shareholder class action currently alleges that the company misstated its capital and liquidity position.
AST SpaceMobile estimates an average cost of $21 million to $23 million per satellite, including launch expenses, across a constellation of more than 90. This planned fleet exceeds the 45 to 60 it needs for continuous service. At that average, a 90-satellite fleet works out to roughly $2 billion, by our arithmetic. The company’s June 30, 2026 cash, combined with the $1.15 billion it raised from convertible notes in July, came to over $3.7 billion, restricted cash included. Management said this financing positions the company to complete the full build-out.
Satellite construction and deployment are not the only expenses. Management expects about $400 million of adjusted operating expenses in 2026, excluding the cost of revenue. This compares to revenue guidance of $150 million to $200 million. As a result, AST SpaceMobile will be spending cash on a business that costs more to run than it brings in.
Most Of AST SpaceMobile’s Launches Are Still Ahead
Management said achieving this revenue plan remains subject to the successful launch and deployment of the BlueBird satellites. AST SpaceMobile relies on outside launch providers and has booked 10 launches with 2 providers. The company has already faced a setback: it lost BlueBird 7 on a Blue Origin launch in April 2026 and booked a $125.9 million loss after $32.5 million of insurance recoveries, which management referenced on the August call. Additionally, the estimated cost per satellite could fluctuate, as management noted the figures are subject to geopolitical factors.
Management indicated in August that BlueBirds 14 to 16 were ready to ship shortly, and the company was working toward 6 fully assembled satellites a month. For investors, the critical metric to follow is the number of satellites in orbit by early 2027. A count well short of about 45 would indicate that AST SpaceMobile’s commercial service, alongside the revenue that begins with it, is running later than management planned.
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