Was There Any Sign Texas Instruments Stock Would Run?
Shares of Texas Instruments (TXN) returned 67% in the twelve months from October 7, 2025, to October 8, 2026, easily outpacing the 17% gain for the S&P 500. That performance ultimately rested on a single factor: demand for the company’s chips recovered among industrial customers and data centers. So how early could you have seen that recovery coming?
Texas Instruments’ Sales Decline Was Shrinking Before The Run
The earliest signs of a turnaround appeared in the autumn of 2024, a full year before the stock began its ascent. During an earnings call on October 22, 2024, management noted that the industrial market was down slightly as customers continued reducing their inventories. However, the financial results filed the next day revealed that the overall contraction was already slowing. Revenue for the third quarter of 2024 fell 8.4% from a year earlier, a clear improvement from the 15.6% drop posted the quarter before. By the fourth quarter of 2024, the decline had narrowed to 1.7%.
Management pointed out on a January 23, 2025, call that industrial and automotive customers made up about 70% of revenue. Any rebound in those markets would lift the entire company. Actual growth followed soon after. In a report filed on April 24 of that year, revenue rose 11.1% in the first quarter of 2025. The expansion then gathered pace, with revenue rising 16.4% in the second quarter, detailed in a filing on July 29, 2025.
Executives offered another hint during their April 23, 2025, call. They stated that “geopolitically dependable capacity will matter more.” In practical terms, this meant customers would place a higher premium on the origin of their components, and Texas Instruments manufactures its own chips.
Recognizing these shifts in real time was difficult. News coverage on April 21, 2025, expected first-quarter sales to be hurt by the trade war and by a slowdown in industrial and automotive markets. Even management cautioned on a July 22, 2025, call that tariffs were disrupting supply chains. Identifying the recovery meant trusting the filed sales figures rather than focusing on the tariff headlines.
Where Does Texas Instruments’ Revenue Stand Now?
Texas Instruments’ revenue over the last twelve months reached $19.5 billion, up from $16.7 billion a year earlier. During a July 22, 2026, call, management reported that industrial sales rose around 30% from a year earlier in the second quarter of 2026, while data center sales doubled. On the same call, executives noted that their ability to supply from dependable capacity was becoming an advantage, validating the point they had raised in April 2025.
Investors are now paying for that recovery. The stock trades at 43.4 times earnings, sitting close to its ten-year high of 44.9. Not every peer ran with it: Analog Devices returned 75.8% over the same window, while NXP Semiconductors returned 7.1%.
Are Texas Instruments’ Sales Speeding Up?
The latest report confirms that growth is accelerating. Revenue grew 22.8% in the second quarter of 2026 from a year earlier, a clear step up from 18.6% the quarter before. Management added on the July 22, 2026, call that the company’s backlog of orders built through the quarter, and that it had started raising prices.
The third quarter has ended, though the company has yet to report results. For that quarter, management forecast revenue of $5.65 billion to $6.15 billion, which compares with the $5.5 billion it reported for the second. If revenue comes in above $6.15 billion, the top of that range, it would indicate that demand is still running ahead of management’s own forecast, as it did in the second quarter. Conversely, revenue below $5.65 billion, the bottom of that range, would signal that demand is falling short of management’s forecast.
How To Act On TXN?
Now you know TXN better. And that’s our purpose: to make you informed before you invest your money. However, making a bet on a single stock carries its own risks.
There is a smarter choice. Since its inception, the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio has beaten the benchmark that combines the three major indices – the S&P 500, S&P Mid-cap, and Russell 2000. And it did so without taking the concentrated risk that comes with do-it-yourself stock picking.
If you’d rather act on TXN itself:
| Play Offense | Play Defense |
|---|---|
| Learn More About TXN & Invest | Save Taxes On Capital Gain |
| Earn From TXN Cash Secured Puts | Covered Call Against TXN |