What Would It Take For Amgen Stock To Move Higher?

Amgen (AMGN) stock has returned 44% over the past twelve months, easily outpacing the 17.1% gain for the S&P 500. Investors looking at that rally might question what catalysts remain to push shares higher. One candidate is an experimental therapy that is not yet on the market, and executives say its development is progressing rapidly. So what is that drug, and how far along is it?

Amgen Is Testing An Obesity Drug Called MariTide

MariTide is an experimental obesity drug, and what sets it apart is its dosing schedule. During the company’s second-quarter 2026 earnings call on August 4, 2026, executives outlined their goal to make MariTide the first obesity therapy dosed monthly or less often. The company’s reasoning is that a less frequent routine is easier for patients to maintain, which could help them keep the weight off.

The therapy has already advanced into late-stage Phase III trials. Amgen currently has 9 of those studies running and 3 more planned, with executives noting on the same call that enrollment is strong.

The company is preparing for commercialization well before those results arrive. Amgen expects capital spending of about $2.6 billion in 2026, partly to scale manufacturing capacity for the eventual launch of MariTide. Amgen said it is investing across its United States manufacturing sites, including facilities in North Carolina, Ohio, and Puerto Rico.

How Big Must MariTide Be To Matter For Amgen?

Because MariTide currently generates no sales, its potential impact must be weighed against the $38.1 billion of revenue Amgen reported over the last twelve months. That top-line figure grew from $34.9 billion a year earlier. Against a total of that size, a single new drug might add to revenue without fundamentally transforming it.

Repatha, a drug Amgen already sells, offers a helpful yardstick for scale. Amgen sold $3.0 billion of the treatment in fiscal 2025, accounting for 8% of the company’s revenue. MariTide would similarly need to become a multi-billion-dollar drug before it could meaningfully change the growth rate at Amgen.

Investors are currently paying a premium for Amgen’s earnings, as the stock trades at 25.5 times earnings, compared to 21.5 for the S&P 500. It commands that multiple even with shares trading 7.0% below their 52-week high. This pricing suggests the market already assumes Amgen’s growth will continue, yet a clinical-stage drug with no sales adds nothing so far to the earnings that support such a valuation.

Amgen Still Has To Show Patients Can Tolerate MariTide

The ongoing Phase III trials must prove that patients can tolerate the drug’s side effects, an issue that came up on the August 4 call. The question put to executives was whether they were confident that vomiting rates in those trials would land in the mid-20s or lower. Management responded that the company is very confident in the drug’s clinical profile, though they did not name a rate.

On that same call, Amgen disclosed it had halted development of a Phase I drug called AMG 513, noting that the internal bar for obesity medicines is high. MariTide has managed to stay in development under that standard, but the definitive Phase III results are still pending.

Investors will now be watching closely for data on the vomiting rate. If MariTide reports a rate in the mid-20s or lower in its initial Phase III results, it would demonstrate that the treatment meets the side-effect level raised on the recent earnings call.

Does This Mean You Should Act On AMGN?

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