Is PTC Stock Increasing Your Market Risk?

Schneider Electric has agreed to buy PTC (PTC), an industrial software maker, and the stock rose 37.6% over the past five sessions against the S&P 500’s 1.2%. After a move like that, holders may look again at what PTC does to the rest of their money, most of which probably follows the market. When the market has a bad day, does PTC make it worse for you?

On A Typical Down Day, PTC Fell Less

Not on an average day. Over the past year of daily moves, the S&P 500 lost 0.61% on its average down day and PTC lost 0.55%. On the index’s average up day, the S&P 500 gained 0.64% and PTC gained 0.52%. On $10,000 of PTC stock, the average down day cost about $55. The average up day added about $52, a little less than the down day took.

Across all those days, PTC moved about 0.62% for each 1% the index moved. So PTC has added less market risk than the same money in an index fund would have.

But PTC’s own swings were much wider than the market’s. PTC’s volatility, its typical swing over a year, was 49.4% over the past year, which includes the five-session rise, against 13.0% for the S&P 500. Because typical market days caused only modest daily moves, the bulk of PTC’s outsized swings clearly stemmed from its own news. The risk PTC adds is mostly its own.

Will PTC Stock Keep Moving Like This?

Probably not. Under the terms of the agreement, Schneider is acquiring the computer-aided design and product lifecycle management software maker for $205 per share in cash. The stock was at $192.26 on October 5, 2026, below that price. Holders are due a set cash price if the sale goes through, which points to smaller swings than the past year’s.

The swings that remain are likely to come from news about the sale, not from the market. Even over the past year, PTC’s moves were only loosely tied to the S&P 500’s. Their correlation—a measure of how closely the two track each other’s moves—was just 0.16, where 1 would mean moving in lockstep.

Did PTC Pay Its Owners Better Than The Index?

No. Over the past five years, PTC returned 10.0% a year, against 13.9% for the S&P 500. PTC’s volatility over those five years was 35.1% a year, against 17.0% for the index. Dividing the return by the volatility shows how much return each unit of swing has earned. Over the past five years that was 0.28 for PTC and 0.82 for the S&P 500, so PTC’s swings have paid less than the market’s.

Over the past year, PTC added a little less than the market on its average up day and took a little less on its average down day. With a cash price agreed, PTC is likely to follow the market less on the next up day and the next down day. So PTC neither adds much to the market risk in the rest of your money nor steadies it. If you already own other companies that have agreed to be sold for cash, PTC is the same kind of bet: that a signed sale goes through.

Does This Mean You Should Act On PTC?

Our purpose is to inform you with unique data so you make the right investment decisions. That said, betting on a single stock is always risky, no matter which direction you choose.

There is a smarter approach. Since its inception, the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio has returned 105%, beating the benchmark that combines the three major indices – the S&P 500, S&P Mid-cap, and Russell 2000. And it did so without taking the concentrated risk that comes with do-it-yourself stock picking. If that is how you want to invest, the HQ Portfolio is the place to start.