How Much Could You Lose In Qualcomm Stock?
Qualcomm (QCOM) stock has returned 44% over the past six months, against 17.2% for the S&P 500. But Qualcomm has traded through many market shocks since 2007. So how much has the stock lost when markets turned, and how long did it stay down?
Qualcomm Lost 41.0% In Its Deepest Shock Since 2007
Qualcomm lost 41.0% between August 2014 and February 2016, as oil prices slid, while the S&P 500 lost just 6.8%. Qualcomm lost almost as much again during the inflation shock of 2022, when the S&P 500 fell 24%. Further back, the stock lost 87% between its 2000 peak and its 2002 low.
The typical fall was smaller, but it was still deeper than the market’s. Across fifteen shocks, Qualcomm fell 24% on average, against 15.8% for the S&P 500.
After all fifteen shocks, Qualcomm got back to its earlier high, and the median wait from the low was 5.3 months. Four of the recoveries took more than a year, though. The slowest followed the fall that ended in February 2016, when the stock needed 30.6 months from its low to regain its old high.
Qualcomm’s Sales Fell For Two Quarters And Margin Slipped
Qualcomm’s revenue fell 4.0% from a year earlier in fiscal Q3 2026, after a 3.5% fall the quarter before. Chips make up most of Qualcomm’s revenue. The chip business brought in $38.4 billion in fiscal 2025, and patent licensing added $5.6 billion.
Qualcomm also keeps less of each sales dollar than it did. Its operating margin was 23% over the last twelve months, down from 28% a year ago. Debt, at least, is small, at 7.8% of Qualcomm’s market value against 20.8% for the S&P 500.
What Risks Are Building At Qualcomm Now?
Qualcomm is losing Apple’s business faster than it expected. On its July 29, 2026 earnings call, management said its share of the upcoming iPhone launch would be materially lower than its earlier estimate of 20%. It also said Apple product revenues would start stepping down faster in fiscal Q4 2026.
Costs are rising at the same time. Management said unprecedented memory prices and higher manufacturing costs are putting short-term pressure on the chip business’s gross margin. Qualcomm is raising its prices in response. But management also expects its first data center chips, mostly built to order for customers, to lower that margin by 1.5% to 2%.
For fiscal Q4 2026, Qualcomm guided its chip business to a pre-tax margin of 23% to 25%, against the 26% it reported for Q3. A margin below 23% when Qualcomm reports that quarter would be below the range management gave in July.
How To Act On QCOM?
Now you know QCOM better. And that’s our purpose: to make you informed before you invest your money. However, making a bet on a single stock carries its own risks.
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