Are You Sure You Understand Joby Stock’s Risk?

Joby Aviation (JOBY) stock’s 14.5% drop in the month to September 28 came without a company setback. Peers Archer Aviation and Eve fell too. A holder may put that down to the industry, but is Joby Aviation sturdier than it was when past shocks hit?

Only Partly Sturdier: Joby Aviation Still Loses Money

Only partly. Joby Aviation now sells flights, mostly through its Blade passenger business. A year earlier, its sales over twelve months were close to zero.

The company’s own electric air taxis are still in development. Management said in August that the company still targets carrying its first passengers in 2026. It also raised its 2026 revenue forecast to $115 million to $125 million, from $105 million to $115 million.

The company’s losses are still far larger than its sales. Over the last twelve months, Joby Aviation lost $0.9 billion on about $0.1 billion of revenue. It used $365 million of cash in the first half of 2026. For the second half, it expects to use $385 million to $415 million.

Joby Aviation does have the money to keep spending. It ended the second quarter with about $2.3 billion in cash and short-term investments. Its debt equals 12.6% of its market value, against 21% for the S&P 500.

Investors value Joby Aviation at 51 times its yearly sales, against 3.1 times for the S&P 500. That price depends on sales the company has not yet made.

Joby Aviation’s Average Shock Fall: Twice The S&P 500’s

Joby Aviation stock has fallen about twice as far as the S&P 500 in market shocks, on average. Since it began trading, the stock has been through five of them. Its average fall in those five was 27%, against 13.4% for the S&P 500.

Its deepest fall in those shocks was 51%, in the 2022 inflation shock. The S&P 500 fell 24% in that shock. Its worst drop since it began trading was deeper still: 80%, from a 2021 peak to a 2022 low.

The stock fell furthest when interest rates jumped: in the 2022 inflation shock and in the second half of 2023. Its average fall in those two shocks was 45%.

Recovery times varied sharply across those episodes: while the median recovery from a low back to its pre-shock high was 3.6 months, the two deepest rate-shock falls took much longer—16.3 and 13.0 months, respectively. The slowest recovery came after the deepest fall, in 2022.

What Is Your Portfolio’s Risk From A 2022 Repeat?

Say 10% of your portfolio is in Joby Aviation stock. A repeat of its fall in the 2022 inflation shock would cost the portfolio 5.1% from that stake alone. With 20% in the stock, it would cost 10.2%. After that fall, the shares took 16.3 months from the low to regain their earlier high.

The stock’s deepest falls in past shocks came when rates and valuations were hit. The stock is still priced on sales Joby Aviation has not yet made. The event to watch is the first air-taxi passengers, which management targets for 2026. If the company carries them on time, its air taxis will be in service, not only in tests. A delay would mean holders keep paying a price built on air-taxi flights that have not begun.

Beyond JOBY: A Systematic Way To Grow Your Money

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