When Should You Buy NVIDIA Stock After This Run?
A $10,000 holding in NVIDIA (NVDA) stock three months ago was worth about $11,700 as of September 25, 2026. Yet against profits, the shares still trade near the low end of their ten-year range. If you have been waiting to buy NVIDIA, have you already missed it?
Have You Missed The Low Multiple On NVIDIA Stock?
Not if you judge it by earnings against its own past. The price-to-earnings ratio, or P/E, is the share price divided by a year of profit per share. NVIDIA trades at 28.1 times earnings, above the 22.1 for the S&P 500. Over the past ten years its P/E has ranged from 19.6 to 143.1, and today it is near the bottom.
But a low P/E only stays low if profit holds up. NVIDIA’s operating margin, the share of revenue left after running costs, is 65%, its highest in ten years. Its three-year average is 59%. If margins slipped back toward that average, the same price would buy less profit.
Cash looks less comfortable than earnings. Against operating cash flow, the cash the business brings in from running itself, the stock costs 40.4 times. The S&P 500 costs 14.5 times. Part of the cash has gone into inventory. On the fiscal Q2 2027 call, management said inventory rose to $32 billion as NVIDIA prepared for the Vera Rubin launch. On earnings or on cash, a price built on peak margins needs profit growth to continue.
How Much Revenue Is NVIDIA Stock Counting On?
The price appears to assume more revenue than NVIDIA itself has forecast for fiscal Q3 2027. Management guided revenue for that quarter to $108 billion, plus or minus 2%. The consensus forecast for that quarter is $111.3 billion, above the top of that range.
That expectation has a record behind it. Management said fiscal Q2 2027 revenue of $96 billion more than doubled from a year earlier. Growth also sped up for the fourth quarter in a row.
The newly launched Vera Rubin platform is one source of that revenue. Management expects it to make up about 20% of data center revenue in fiscal Q3 2027. Management says supply, not demand, is the limit. Management expects supply to remain a bottleneck at least through the end of fiscal 2028.
Gross margin, the share of revenue left after making the product, is a different measure from operating margin. For fiscal Q3 2027 it is guided to 74%, plus or minus half a point, down from 75% in fiscal Q2 2027. Management pointed to higher component costs, especially memory. The next report has to beat NVIDIA’s own revenue forecast. The stock has not always taken its reports well.
NVIDIA’s Fiscal Q3 2027 Results Land in November
NVIDIA is expected to report on or around November 17, 2026. That report covers fiscal Q3 2027, and it will show whether revenue matches what the price appears to assume.
The stock’s record after reports runs both ways. Over the last six reports, NVIDIA shares fell after four and rose after two, measured over two trading days. The biggest drop was 9.4%, after the February 25, 2026, report. The biggest gain was 3.8%, after the August 26, 2026, report.
A broad market sell-off is a separate risk. During the 2025 tariff shock, NVIDIA stock fell 32% from peak to low, against 19% for the S&P 500.
If fiscal Q3 2027 revenue lands below $111.3 billion, the price will have asked for more than NVIDIA delivered. Buying now would then prove early. Suppose revenue clears $111.3 billion and gross margin comes in at 74% or better. The business will then have kept pace with the run. Buying at today’s price would not have been too late.
How To Act On NVDA?
