Coeur Mining Is Generating Record Cash, So Why Does Its Dip History Warn Buyers?
Coeur Mining (CDE) has fallen about 10% from its late-August high, and the question is whether to step in. Its own record after sharp falls argues for caution: the typical fall left buyers lower a year later. But those qualifying falls were drops of 20% or more, and this pullback is smaller. And Coeur is still absorbing two Canadian mines whose ramp-up has already slipped.
What Have Coeur’s Past Falls Actually Paid?
Since 2010, CDE has fallen 20% or more inside 30 trading days on 39 separate occasions. Of the 36 old enough to have a full year behind them, only 14 ended higher twelve months later. The median outcome was a 13% loss.
Across those dips, the median best gain inside the year was 38%, reached about 154 calendar days in, or roughly five months. That 38% is the peak along the way, while the twelve-month figure is where a holder finished, and that is the one that counts.
Waiting was uncomfortable too. The median worst drop inside that year was a further 37%.
CDE had 39 events since 1/1/2010 where the dip threshold of -20% within 30 days was triggered
- 38% median peak return within 1 year of dip event
- 154 days is the median time to peak return after a dip event
- -37% median max drawdown within 1 year of dip event
| Period | Past Median Return |
|---|---|
| 1M | 0.2% |
| 3M | -6.1% |
| 6M | -7.3% |
| 12M | -13.4% |
| 30 Day Dip | CDE Subsequent Performance | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | CDE | SPY | 1Y | Peak Return |
Max Drop |
# Days to Peak |
||
| Median | -13% | 38% | -37% | 154 | ||||
| 6242026 | -22% | -1% | -8% | 64 | ||||
| 3242026 | -20% | -6% | -23% | 156 | ||||
| 11042025 | -23% | 2% | 0% | 115 | ||||
| 2272025 | -21% | 0% | 351% | 441% | -4% | 365 | ||
| 11062024 | -20% | 4% | 157% | 291% | -19% | 344 | ||
| 1302024 | -22% | 4% | 141% | 174% | -11% | 240 | ||
| 8152023 | -21% | -0% | 154% | 193% | -13% | 336 | ||
| 5162023 | -21% | -0% | 63% | 69% | -38% | 359 | ||
| 2232023 | -21% | 3% | -15% | 47% | -33% | 49 | ||
| 12192022 | -21% | 1% | 8% | 41% | -36% | 115 | ||
| 7052022 | -24% | -2% | -5% | 59% | -6% | 282 | ||
| 4292022 | -24% | -6% | -7% | 22% | -28% | 349 | ||
| 12022021 | -20% | 1% | -34% | 5% | -50% | 5 | ||
| 7082021 | -20% | 3% | -66% | 3% | -67% | 1 | ||
| 4292021 | -20% | 6% | -55% | 34% | -56% | 42 | ||
| 2182021 | -24% | 5% | -36% | 32% | -47% | 112 | ||
| 1212020 | -20% | 7% | 54% | 92% | -56% | 331 | ||
| 10152019 | -22% | 3% | 92% | 107% | -41% | 295 | ||
| 4012019 | -24% | 4% | -18% | 106% | -35% | 269 | ||
| 11132018 | -25% | -7% | 55% | 57% | -32% | 364 | ||
| 8132018 | -21% | 4% | -15% | 0% | -53% | 0 | ||
| 11102017 | -22% | 3% | -40% | 23% | -40% | 160 | ||
| 2172017 | -21% | 4% | -12% | 11% | -24% | 60 | ||
| 12162016 | -21% | 8% | -16% | 32% | -25% | 54 | ||
| 9132016 | -22% | -2% | -24% | 9% | -40% | 8 | ||
| 1132016 | -22% | -9% | 444% | 699% | -13% | 210 | ||
| 11172015 | -24% | 4% | 292% | 555% | -29% | 267 | ||
| 7202015 | -24% | 2% | 230% | 239% | -58% | 364 | ||
| 3062015 | -20% | 1% | -0% | 26% | -66% | 104 | ||
| 9222014 | -30% | 4% | -50% | 30% | -52% | 140 | ||
| 4012014 | -21% | 3% | -50% | 2% | -64% | 1 | ||
| 9272013 | -24% | 2% | -56% | 6% | -56% | 25 | ||
| 4172013 | -26% | 1% | -37% | 23% | -37% | 128 | ||
| 2252013 | -21% | 1% | -43% | 1% | -49% | 2 | ||
| 11142012 | -20% | -6% | -50% | 8% | -53% | 49 | ||
| 4042012 | -23% | 3% | -20% | 42% | -32% | 211 | ||
| 10042011 | -24% | 0% | 35% | 47% | -25% | 147 | ||
| 5062011 | -20% | 3% | -31% | 9% | -31% | 298 | ||
| 1152010 | -21% | 3% | 35% | 52% | -26% | 348 | ||
[2] Analysis for period from 1/1/2010 to 9/15/2026
Is Coeur’s Business Strong Enough To Break That Pattern?
That record only matters if Coeur is still the company it was. It is not. The New Afton and Rainy River mines have turned a silver-led miner into a diversified North American precious metals producer. Trailing twelve-month revenue has reached $3.17 billion, up about 117%.
Coeur produced record free cash flow of $388 million in the second quarter of 2026. It paid its first dividend in 30 years. None of that looks like a company in trouble.
The complication is those same two mines, where Coeur recalibrated guidance after one full quarter of ownership. New Afton will not hit 16 thousand tonnes a day until early in the fourth quarter of 2026, three months later than planned. Rainy River’s 5 thousand tonne per day underground target slips from the third quarter of 2026 to year end. The reset also took full-year 2026 free cash flow guidance down to about $1.5 billion, from more than $2 billion.
| Quality Metrics | Value | Quality Check |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (LTM) | 117.3% | Pass |
| Revenue Growth (3-Yr Avg) | 66.2% | Pass |
| Operating Cash Flow Margin (LTM) | 46.2% | Pass |
| Leverage (see below) | – | Pass |
| => Interest Coverage Ratio | 39.9 | |
| => Cash To Interest Expense Ratio | 38.6 |
Is This Drop Like The Ones Before It?
This pullback is about 10%, while those 39 falls were 20% or deeper. So that history describes a harder drop than the one in front of you.
Even after the slide CDE trades at about 24 times earnings, against roughly 23 for the S&P 500. The fall has not made it cheap.
On the other side sits what management has guided for the second half of 2026: production stepping up sharply, and Rochester’s silver output rising after the Phase IIa leach pad expansion. The test comes with third quarter 2026 results, due later in the fall. The line to watch is Rainy River’s underground mining rate.
So Do You Buy Coeur Here Or Wait?
If you are torn on this, you are reading it correctly. The business has never been stronger, and its own record after a fall points the other way, though that record was built on falls of 20% or more, deeper than this one. In this stock the wait has usually meant watching it fall a good deal further first. The answer here is not yet, and third quarter 2026 results are the first real test.
Two things make the decision easier. One is to stop judging this fall alone, and our Buy The Dip rankings show which recent declines carry a clearer history.
The other is to stop picking falls one at a time. That is what the Trefis High Quality Portfolio is for: quality businesses chosen by rule, so no single drop decides your year. That portfolio has a track record of outpacing the three major indices.