How Will Equitable Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Equitable (NYSE:EQH) is set to report its earnings on Tuesday, May 5, 2026. The company has $12 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $12 Bil, and it was operationally loss-making with $-1.2 Bil in operating losses and net income of $-1.4 Bil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
Separately, the Trefis High Quality Portfolio has outperformed its benchmark to achieve returns exceeding 105% since its inception.
Equitable’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 8 positive and 12 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 40% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 42% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 8 positive returns = 1.6%, and median of the 12 negative returns = -3.1%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/4/2026 | -3.1% | -0.6% | -11.8% |
| 11/4/2025 | -7.4% | -8.1% | -5.6% |
| 8/5/2025 | 0.4% | 7.7% | 6.2% |
| 4/29/2025 | -3.1% | -1.7% | 4.9% |
| 2/5/2025 | -2.3% | 0.3% | -5.5% |
| 11/4/2024 | -1.1% | 9.3% | 6.6% |
| 7/30/2024 | 1.0% | -11.5% | -2.4% |
| 4/30/2024 | 4.6% | 6.8% | 12.4% |
| 2/6/2024 | 2.9% | 1.2% | 3.2% |
| 10/31/2023 | -5.1% | 0.3% | 16.4% |
| 8/2/2023 | 0.4% | 0.4% | 2.0% |
| 5/3/2023 | -6.3% | -7.0% | 5.9% |
| 2/8/2023 | -2.9% | 0.1% | -16.3% |
| 11/2/2022 | -7.3% | -4.5% | 5.0% |
| 8/3/2022 | 0.4% | 5.2% | 4.7% |
| 5/9/2022 | -2.3% | -2.5% | 4.5% |
| 2/10/2022 | -4.7% | -8.5% | -16.2% |
| 11/3/2021 | 2.2% | -0.5% | -8.8% |
| 8/4/2021 | 4.4% | 8.5% | 3.5% |
| 5/5/2021 | -0.1% | -8.3% | -10.1% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 10 | 12 |
| # Negative | 12 | 10 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 1.6% | 3.2% | 5.0% |
| Median Negative | -3.1% | -5.8% | -9.5% |
| Max Positive | 4.6% | 9.3% | 16.4% |
| Max Negative | -7.4% | -11.5% | -16.3% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -22.4% | -20.1% | -22.9% |
| 3Y History | -17.4% | -25.8% | -39.7% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Equitable stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Equitable. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EQH Earnings Dates | EQH | PRU | AMP | PFG |
| 2/4/2026 | -3.1% | -4.7% | 4.6% | N/A* |
| 11/4/2025 | -7.4% | 3.8% | -0.5% | 3.1% |
| 8/5/2025 | 0.4% | 1.4% | -2.0% | -5.3% |
| 4/29/2025 | -3.1% | N/A* | -0.5% | -0.5% |
| 2/5/2025 | -2.3% | -5.0% | -6.4% | N/A* |
| 11/4/2024 | -1.1% | -4.7% | -2.4% | -9.0% |
| 7/30/2024 | 1.0% | N/A* | 1.8% | -3.1% |
| 4/30/2024 | 4.6% | N/A* | -2.3% | -2.4% |
| 2/6/2024 | 2.9% | N/A* | -0.4% | N/A* |
| 10/31/2023 | -5.1% | N/A* | 2.4% | -1.0% |
| 8/2/2023 | 0.4% | -1.1% | -1.9% | -5.7% |
| 5/3/2023 | -6.3% | -2.6% | -7.7% | -6.1% |
| 2/8/2023 | -2.9% | 1.5% | 2.8% | -2.4% |
| 11/2/2022 | -7.3% | -0.7% | 11.0% | 6.0% |
| 8/3/2022 | 0.4% | -1.2% | 11.8% | N/A* |
| 5/9/2022 | -2.3% | -4.2% | -7.2% | -2.3% |
| 2/10/2022 | -4.7% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 4.9% |
| 11/3/2021 | 2.2% | 2.5% | 4.3% | -0.5% |
| 8/4/2021 | 4.4% | -2.2% | 1.8% | -1.2% |
| 5/5/2021 | -0.1% | 2.5% | N/A* | N/A* |
| CORRELATION | 9.6% | 4.8% | -71.4% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after EQH
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