How Will Williams Companies Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Williams Companies (NYSE:WMB) is set to report its earnings on Monday, May 4, 2026. The company has $93 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $12 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $4.4 Bil in operating profits and net income of $2.6 Bil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
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Williams Companies’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 19 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 10 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 53% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 67% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 10 positive returns = 1.8%, and median of the 9 negative returns = -2.1%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/10/2026 | 1.5% | 6.1% | 10.4% |
| 11/3/2025 | -4.3% | 2.7% | 7.8% |
| 8/4/2025 | -2.1% | -3.7% | -4.2% |
| 5/5/2025 | -2.4% | -5.1% | -0.1% |
| 2/12/2025 | 4.8% | 6.6% | 5.4% |
| 11/6/2024 | 0.2% | 0.5% | 2.7% |
| 8/5/2024 | 3.9% | 5.0% | 7.8% |
| 5/6/2024 | 0.1% | 1.5% | 6.5% |
| 2/14/2024 | -2.9% | 1.9% | 9.8% |
| 11/1/2023 | 3.1% | 1.2% | 7.4% |
| 8/2/2023 | 2.3% | 4.7% | 2.5% |
| 5/3/2023 | 0.5% | 0.7% | 4.4% |
| 2/21/2023 | -1.5% | -1.8% | -5.2% |
| 10/31/2022 | 2.2% | 3.4% | 6.0% |
| 8/1/2022 | -3.4% | -4.6% | 0.9% |
| 2/22/2022 | -0.4% | 5.6% | 9.9% |
| 11/1/2021 | -0.5% | -0.2% | -6.7% |
| 8/2/2021 | 0.7% | -0.7% | -1.0% |
| 5/3/2021 | -0.8% | 3.1% | 10.2% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 13 | 14 |
| # Negative | 9 | 6 | 5 |
| Median Positive | 1.8% | 3.1% | 6.9% |
| Median Negative | -2.1% | -2.7% | -4.2% |
| Max Positive | 4.8% | 6.6% | 10.4% |
| Max Negative | -4.3% | -5.1% | -6.7% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -25.7% | -17.8% | 18.7% |
| 3Y History | -41.6% | -36.6% | -12.2% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Williams Companies stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Williams Companies. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |
|---|---|---|
| WMB Earnings Dates | WMB | KMI |
| 2/10/2026 | 1.5% | 9.6% |
| 11/3/2025 | -4.3% | -4.3% |
| 8/4/2025 | -2.1% | 2.4% |
| 5/5/2025 | -2.4% | 0.8% |
| 2/12/2025 | 4.8% | -13.7% |
| 11/6/2024 | 0.2% | 6.9% |
| 8/5/2024 | 3.9% | -0.9% |
| 5/6/2024 | 0.1% | 6.4% |
| 2/14/2024 | -2.9% | -4.1% |
| 11/1/2023 | 3.1% | -2.9% |
| 8/2/2023 | 2.3% | 2.0% |
| 5/3/2023 | 0.5% | -4.3% |
| 10/31/2022 | 2.2% | 2.3% |
| 8/1/2022 | -3.4% | 5.0% |
| 11/1/2021 | -0.5% | -7.1% |
| 8/2/2021 | 0.7% | -1.5% |
| CORRELATION | 25.9% |
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