Stocks, Bonds, Gold & Crypto Market Update 8/5/2025: Where Is The Capital Flowing & Why It Matters?

August 6th, 2025 by Trefis Team
AGG: iShares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF logo
AGG
iShares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF

Here is a quick snapshot of how different asset classes moved yesterday, last week, and the last month.

  • Equity dropped 0.5% yesterday, versus -1.1% weekly and 1.2% monthly changes.
  • Bonds increased 0.03% yesterday, aligning with weekly and monthly trends.
  • Gold gained 0.08% yesterday and also rose over the week and month.
  • Commodities fell 0.9% in the last session, continuing declines over week and month.
  • Real Estate rose 0.5% yesterday, following a -1.6% weekly and 1.1% monthly change.
  • Bitcoin climbed 0.2% yesterday, after -2.9% weekly and 5.7% monthly moves.

 

ETF 1D 1W 1M
Equity SPY -0.5% -1.1% 1.2%
Bonds AGG 0.0% 0.4% 1.2%
Gold GLD 0.1% 1.6% 1.2%
Commodities DBC -0.9% -3.8% -2.0%
Real Estate VNQ 0.5% -1.6% 1.1%
Bitcoin BTCUSD 0.2% -2.9% 5.7%

Why does it matter?

 

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  • See where capital is flowing: Asset class performance reveals investor sentiment, from risk-on rallies to flight-to-safety moves.
  • Track shifts in correlation: Rising correlations reduce diversification benefits and increase portfolio risk during stress.
  • Spot early signs of rotation: Leadership changing across stocks, bonds, or commodities often precedes macro regime shifts.

We take a macro-conscious approach to strategic asset allocation, even within equities – adjusting exposure across sectors and styles in High Quality Portfolio

Capital Flow Patterns Have Governed Historical Risk-Return Profile

ETF Return Volatility Sharpe
Equity SPY 13.5% 15.4% 72.9%
Bonds AGG 1.7% 5.1% -13.8%
Gold GLD 11.4% 13.8% 65.8%
Commodities DBC 4.0% 16.1% 15.5%
Real Estate VNQ 5.3% 17.7% 24.8%
Bitcoin BTCUSD 81.7% 76.3% 109.4%

Figures are on annualized basis, based on monthly return data for last 10 years

How Stable Is Correlation Between Different Asset Classes?

Equity Bonds Gold Commodities Real Estate Bitcoin
Equity – 10% | 19% | 5.9% 4.5% | 14% | 5.6% 35% | 26% | 29% 74% | 70% | 64% 24% | 37% | 43%
Bonds 10% | 19% | 5.9% – 35% | 34% | 16% -0.4% | -2.2% | -8.4% 27% | 36% | 39% 10% | 7.2% | -7.8%
Gold 4.5% | 14% | 5.6% 35% | 34% | 16% – 26% | 34% | 39% 13% | 20% | 16% 10% | 9.8% | 7.5%
Commodities 35% | 26% | 29% -0.4% | -2.2% | -8.4% 26% | 34% | 39% – 24% | 17% | 15% 9.9% | 12% | 11%
Real Estate 74% | 70% | 64% 27% | 36% | 39% 13% | 20% | 16% 24% | 17% | 15% – 16% | 24% | 24%
Bitcoin 24% | 37% | 43% 10% | 7.2% | -7.8% 10% | 9.8% | 7.5% 9.9% | 12% | 11% 16% | 24% | 24% –

The figures above are correlations for last 10Y, 5Y and 1Y, in same order

Which Assets Have Seen Most Money Rotation During Market Crashes?

ETF Inflation Shock Covid Pandemic 2018 Correction
Equity SPY -23.0% -30.4% -19.3%
Bonds AGG -14.1% -2.1% 1.4%
Gold GLD -7.7% -6.3% 5.0%
Commodities DBC 20.5% -23.7% -16.5%
Real Estate VNQ -29.8% -41.6% -11.1%
Bitcoin BTCUSD -56.0% -33.5% -37.4%

The table shows return of different asset classes during market crises – specifically during the period where S&P fell and bottomed

The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming the S&P 500 over the last 4-year period. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.