Is Williams-Sonoma Stock’s Winning Streak Skill Or Luck?
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Williams-Sonoma (WSM), the home furnishings retailer behind Pottery Barn and West Elm, has beaten the S&P 500 in each of the last four years. A record like that looks like proof of an exceptional company, yet 485 large U.S. stocks ran the same four-year race. How many of them do you think managed the same streak?
How Rare Is Williams-Sonoma’s Winning Streak?
Only 21 of the 485 stocks measured managed to do the same, and Williams-Sonoma is one of them. The 485 stocks measured are the S&P 500’s current members with five years of pricing data. Counting price changes before dividends, Williams-Sonoma shares rose more than the index in each of the four years to October 21, 2026.
| Period | The stock | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2021 to Oct 13, 2022 | -29.8% | -15.9% |
| Oct 13, 2022 to Oct 16, 2023 | +32.8% | +19.2% |
| Oct 16, 2023 to Oct 16, 2024 | +86.0% | +33.6% |
| Oct 16, 2024 to Oct 20, 2025 | +25.8% | +15.3% |
| Oct 20, 2025 to Oct 21, 2026 | +33.4% | +15.2% |
Price changes over periods of 252 trading sessions each, dividends excluded. The first row is the year before the streak began, when the stock trailed the index.
Beating the index in any single year is less common than most people assume. Only 39% of those stocks managed the feat in the latest year. Losing to the index is the normal result, making a four-year run of outperformance is rare.
Could A Streak Like This Be Luck?
For some stocks, yes. In a sample of this size, a few will string together long streaks even if no company is better than any other.
About four in ten of these stocks beat the index in a typical year of the streak. If you assume pure luck dictates the winners, you could put all 485 names in a hat and draw the actual number of outperformers each year. After four consecutive years of drawing, about 10 names would come out every single time. That means 10 companies would build a four-year winning streak without relying on any skill at all.
In reality, 21 companies have such a streak. That is about twice as many as luck alone would produce. Part of that gap may be merit, and part may come from counting only today’s index members, a method that leaves out companies that dropped out of the index. Either way, the share price cannot tell you which of the 21 stocks are there on merit.
Did Williams-Sonoma’s Profit Grow Through The Streak?
Profit grew in most years, but it had barely moved by the end of the streak. Williams-Sonoma’s twelve-month profit fell 17.8% in the streak’s first year when comparing the twelve months to July 2023 with the year before, yet the stock still beat the index that year. Profit then rose in each of the next three years and finished the streak less than 1% above where it started.
Over the same four years, the shares rose 314.5%, compared with 111.4% for the S&P 500. The share price ran far ahead of the underlying profit. This streak lacks the one thing that would point to skill: matching profit growth. The latest year’s profit also includes a one-time tariff refund that management booked in the quarter ended August 2, 2026.
What To Watch Instead Of The Streak
Management said on its August 26, 2026 call that Williams-Sonoma’s business-to-business sales to hotels, restaurants, and other projects grew 14.5% in the quarter ended August 2, 2026. Management also raised its outlook for the full year and now expects comparable brand revenue growth of 4% to 6.5%.
A streak records only what the share price did, while profit records what the business earned. Williams-Sonoma’s twelve-month profit grew 4.6% in the latest year, a figure that includes the tariff refund. Management put the refund’s net benefit to second-quarter pretax results at about $117 million, more than the year’s roughly $50 million rise in profit, so profit without the refund likely fell. When the company next reports in November 2026, profit without that refund will be the figure to watch.
Does This Mean You Should Act On WSM?
Our purpose is to inform you with unique data so you make the right investment decisions. That said, betting on a single stock is always risky, no matter which direction you choose.
There is a smarter approach. Since its inception, the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio has returned 105%, beating the benchmark that combines the three major indices – the S&P 500, S&P Mid-cap, and Russell 2000. And it did so without taking the concentrated risk that comes with do-it-yourself stock picking. If that is how you want to invest, the HQ Portfolio is the place to start.
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