Is Walmart Stock’s Winning Streak Skill Or Luck?

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Walmart Inc. (WMT), the retailer behind Walmart stores and Sam’s Club, has beaten the S&P 500 in each of the last five years. Such a record looks like proof of an exceptional company that wins on merit year after year. So how many of about 480 large U.S. stocks do you think managed the same?

How Rare Is Walmart’s Winning Streak?

Walmart’s share price outperformed the S&P 500 in every one of the five years to October 28, 2026, counting price changes before dividends.

Only 9 of the 485 S&P 500 members with five years of prices achieved the same result, including Walmart. Trailing the index remains the normal outcome. In the latest year, just 42.9% of these stocks beat the benchmark. Outperforming the index for a single year is already the less common outcome, and doing it five years running is rare.

Could A Streak Like This Be Luck?

With a group this large, a few stocks will string together long runs even if no company is better than another. In a typical year of the five, about four in ten of these stocks beat the index. Now suppose pure luck determined those winners. Imagine placing all 485 names in a hat each year and drawing about 41% of them to win.

Repeating that draw five years in a row means about six names come out every single time. Six companies would hold a five-year winning streak with no skill involved at all. In reality, 9 companies have such a streak, which is about one and a half times as many as luck alone would produce. So some of those streaks may be real, but the share price cannot reveal which ones, if any.

Did Walmart’s Profit Grow Through The Streak?

Walmart sells groceries and general merchandise through Walmart U.S., Walmart International and Sam’s Club U.S. Its profit rose in each of the five years of the streak, though only slightly in two of them. Over the entire stretch, twelve-month net income rose 120%, against a 144% rise in the share price. The latest twelve months include tariff refunds Walmart received in its fiscal second quarter of 2027. Management said the refunds gave a net boost of about 7.5 percentage points to that quarter’s operating income growth.

So Walmart’s streak had rising profit behind it in every year. That is evidence a reader can check, not a verdict on skill.

What To Watch Instead Of The Streak

Walmart’s global advertising business grew 38% in the fiscal second quarter of 2027. On the August 20, 2026 call, management said that almost half of its profit growth came from areas like membership, advertising and marketplace. Management also raised its forecast for adjusted operating income growth in fiscal 2027 to 7% to 8.5%.

A streak is a record of what the share price did, not of what Walmart will earn next. Walmart’s profit growth is the figure to watch, starting with its next report, expected in November 2026.

How Much Walmart Do You Already Own?

If you own an S&P 500 or Nasdaq fund, you already own Walmart, alongside the same few giants that lead those funds. The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio takes a different route: 30 quality companies in equal weight, so no single stock dominates. Since its inception in September 2020 it has returned 105%, ahead of a benchmark that combines the S&P 500, S&P Mid-cap and Russell 2000.

See How The HQ Portfolio Works

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