After A Dismal Performance Last Month, Texas Instruments Stock Looks Set To Bounce

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TXN: Texas Instruments logo
TXN
Texas Instruments

Texas Instruments Incorporated stock (NASDAQ: TXN) is down almost 3% in just one month (21 trading days), completely underperforming the S&P 500 which was up just a little under 5%. If you look at the change over the last five and ten days, too, the stock has returned -1.6% and 0.9%, respectively, thus having underperformed the market on both occasions. Texas Instruments reported strong Q3 2021 earnings at the end of October, with revenue jumping to $4.64 billion from $3.82 billion in Q3 ’20, driven by a $700 million rise in Analog segment sales, which rose to as high as $3.55 billion as of Q3 ’21. Additionally, with COGS and other operating expenses in check, operating margins jumped from 42.2% to 49.6%. A drop in the effective tax rate further benefited TXN, driving EPS from -$0.20 to $1.97 over this period. Finally, combined with a roughly unchanged effective tax rate, EPS jumped from $1.47 in Q3 ’20 to $2.10 in Q3 ’21.

Now, is TXN stock set to drop further or could we expect some rebound? We believe that there is a decent 63% chance of a rise in TXN stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on TXN Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about TXN historical returns and comparison to peers, see Texas Instruments (TXN) Stock Return.

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Twenty-One Day: TXN -2.7%, vs. S&P500 4.8%; Underperformed market

(19% likelihood event; 63% probability of rise over next 21 days)

  • TXN stock dropped 2.7% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 4.8%
  • A change of -2.7% or lower over twenty-one trading days is a 19% likelihood event, which has occurred 480 times out of 2515 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 480 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 303 occasions
  • This points to a 63% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: TXN 0.9%, vs. S&P500 1.6%; Underperformed market

(49% likelihood event; 56% probability of rise over next 10 days)

  • TXN stock increased 0.9% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to broader market (S&P500) rise of 1.6%
  • A change of 0.9% or more over ten trading days is a 49% likelihood event, which has occurred 1223 times out of 2515 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 1223 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 684 occasions
  • This points to a 56% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: TXN -1.6%, vs. S&P500 -0.3%; Underperformed market

(20% likelihood event; 66% probability of rise over next five days)

  • TXN stock dropped 1.6% over a five-day trading period ending 11/15/2021, compared to the broader market (S&P500) drop of 0.3%
  • A change of -1.6% or lower over five trading days (one week) is a 20% likelihood event, which has occurred 498 times out of 2515 in the last ten years
  • Of these 498 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 329 occasions
  • This points to a 66% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

 

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