Is Twilio Stock Worth The Wait?
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Twilio (TWLO) stock currently trades at less than half its February 2021 high. Many shareholders still measure the stock against that record close, treating it as a natural baseline that the shares will eventually revisit. So what would it take for Twilio stock to get back there?
Twilio Stock Needs A 109% Gain To Get Back
Because Twilio stock remains 52.1% below its February 2021 high, it needs a 109% gain to get back. Even if the climb took three years, it would demand an annual return of 27.9%. Shareholders holding out for the previous peak are waiting for the stock to more than double from here.
Has Twilio Stock Ever Gained 109% In Three Years?
An analysis of every three-year period of 756 trading sessions over the last ten years, one starting on each trading day, shows that Twilio stock gained 109% or more in 43.2% of those windows. Such a rally is not a rare event in the company’s price history.
What Has Waiting Cost Twilio Holders?
Holders who bought at the high have now waited 5.7 years. Over those years, Twilio stock has fallen 52.1%, while the S&P 500 has risen 94.0%, both before dividends. So waiting has cost Twilio holders twice: the fall itself, and the rise they missed by not owning the index.
Is Twilio The Same Business It Was Then?
Twilio is a substantially larger enterprise today than the one investors priced in February 2021, and the company now makes money on its operations.
| Twilio | At the high, February 2021 | Now |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | $443.49 | $212.21 |
| Business figures: twelve months ended | 2020-12-31 | 2026-09-30 |
| Revenue, twelve months | $1.76 billion | $5.83 billion |
| Operating margin | -28.0% | 7.7% |
| Net income, twelve months | -$0.491 billion | $1.27 billion |
Share prices are split-adjusted closes on February 18, 2021 and November 12, 2026. Business figures are as reported, for the twelve months to the latest fiscal quarter in our data on or before each date. The latest net income includes a tax benefit of about $0.99 billion booked in the quarter to June 2026.
The company generated 231% more revenue over the twelve months to September 2026 than it did during the twelve months to December 2020. Twilio’s margin also flipped from negative to positive over that same span, turning an operating loss equal to 28.0% of revenue into an operating profit of 7.7% of revenue.
Messaging makes up 60% of the business, management said on its fiscal Q3 2026 call, and the company also sells Voice and software add-ons such as Branded Calling. The price at the old high was the unusual part. Even at the end of 2020, at a close of $338.50 that sat well below that high, the stock traded at 30.4 times sales.
The better question for Twilio holders is not when the old high comes back. It is what today’s bigger, profitable business is worth at 5.6 times sales at today’s price.
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