How Will Take-Two Interactive Software Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Take-Two Interactive Software (NASDAQ:TTWO) is set to report its earnings on Thursday, May 21, 2026. The company has $44 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $6.6 Bil, and it was operationally loss-making with $-333 Mil in operating losses and net income of $-4.0 Bil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
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Take-Two Interactive Software’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 17 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 8 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 47% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 45% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 8 positive returns = 6.1%; median of the 9 negative returns = -4.0%
Additional data for observed 5-day (5D) and 21-day (21D) returns post-earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/3/2026 | -5.4% | -0.7% | 0.2% |
| 11/6/2025 | -8.1% | -5.9% | -1.5% |
| 8/7/2025 | -4.0% | 2.9% | 9.8% |
| 5/15/2025 | -2.4% | -2.7% | 2.7% |
| 2/6/2025 | 14.0% | 14.8% | 10.3% |
| 11/6/2024 | 7.5% | 9.2% | 13.9% |
| 8/8/2024 | 4.4% | 5.5% | 12.6% |
| 5/16/2024 | 1.2% | 4.3% | 7.7% |
| 2/8/2024 | -8.7% | -7.5% | -14.0% |
| 11/8/2023 | 2.0% | 7.3% | 8.3% |
| 8/8/2023 | -0.5% | -0.4% | 1.5% |
| 5/17/2023 | 11.7% | 8.7% | 10.9% |
| 8/8/2022 | -3.8% | 1.5% | -3.9% |
| 5/16/2022 | 11.8% | 12.3% | 14.6% |
| 2/7/2022 | -1.7% | -4.6% | -9.6% |
| 11/3/2021 | 4.8% | -0.8% | -10.0% |
| 8/2/2021 | -7.7% | -7.3% | -6.9% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 9 | 11 |
| # Negative | 9 | 8 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 6.1% | 7.3% | 9.8% |
| Median Negative | -4.0% | -3.7% | -8.3% |
| Max Positive | 14.0% | 14.8% | 14.6% |
| Max Negative | -8.7% | -7.5% | -14.0% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post-earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -23.6% | -15.1% | 41.0% |
| 3Y History | 3.2% | -11.4% | 14.9% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Take-Two Interactive Software stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Take-Two Interactive Software. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TTWO Earnings Dates | TTWO | EA | MSFT | RBLX | AMZN |
| 2/3/2026 | -5.4% | N/A* | -14.6% | N/A* | N/A* |
| 11/6/2025 | -8.1% | 0.0% | -8.2% | -10.4% | 9.1% |
| 8/7/2025 | -4.0% | 10.1% | 1.5% | -5.9% | -4.7% |
| 5/15/2025 | -2.4% | -3.2% | 14.9% | 17.1% | 7.9% |
| 2/6/2025 | 14.0% | -7.3% | -6.0% | N/A* | N/A* |
| 11/6/2024 | 7.5% | 8.5% | -2.9% | 2.3% | 11.1% |
| 8/8/2024 | 4.4% | -1.4% | -4.8% | -4.3% | -9.9% |
| 5/16/2024 | 1.2% | -0.8% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 4.9% |
| 2/8/2024 | -8.7% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 6.6% |
| 11/8/2023 | 2.0% | 5.6% | 9.9% | N/A* | 18.8% |
| 8/8/2023 | -0.5% | -9.9% | -7.1% | N/A* | 8.6% |
| 5/17/2023 | 11.7% | -0.4% | 14.3% | 7.6% | 5.2% |
| 8/8/2022 | -3.8% | 1.7% | 11.3% | N/A* | 14.0% |
| 5/16/2022 | 11.8% | 14.1% | -3.2% | 38.6% | -23.4% |
| 2/7/2022 | -1.7% | 5.0% | 4.3% | N/A* | 13.7% |
| 11/3/2021 | 4.8% | N/A* | 7.7% | N/A* | -1.8% |
| 8/2/2021 | -7.7% | N/A* | -0.6% | N/A* | -7.5% |
| CORRELATION | -22.7% | 1.3% | 21.8% | -37.5% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after TTWO
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