10-Day Rally Sends Supernus Pharmaceuticals Stock Up 14%
Supernus Pharmaceuticals (SUPN) stock hit day 10-day winning streak, with cumulative gains over this period amounting to a 14%. The company market cap has surged by about $356 Mil over the last 10 days, and currently stands at $2.9 Bil.
The stock has YTD (year-to-date) return of 43.0% compared to 17.5% for S&P 500. This calls for re-evaluation of stock’s valuation, and find out whether this is an opportunity, or a trap.
What Triggered The Rally?
| Catalyst | Details | Impact | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stifel Maintains Hold, Increases Price Target |
|
|
2025-12-19 |
| Positive Sector Momentum |
|
|
2025-12-23 |
Opportunity or Trap?
Below is our take on valuation.
There are a few things to fear in SUPN stock given its overall Weak operating performance and financial condition. But keeping in mind its Very High valuation, we think that the stock is Very Unattractive (For details, see Buy or Sell SUPN).
But here is the real interesting point.
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Returns vs S&P 500
The following table summarizes the return for SUPN stock vs. the S&P 500 index over different periods, including the current streak:
| Return Period | SUPN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1D | 0.4% | 0.5% |
| 10D (Current Streak) | 13.8% | 1.0% |
| 1M (21D) | 14.1% | 4.6% |
| 3M (63D) | 9.8% | 4.1% |
| YTD 2025 | 43.0% | 17.5% |
| 2024 | 24.9% | 23.3% |
| 2023 | -18.9% | 24.2% |
| 2022 | 22.3% | -19.4% |
However, big gains can follow sharp reversals – but how has SUPN behaved after prior drops? See SUPN Dip Buyer Analysis to learn more.
Gains and Losses Streaks: S&P 500 Constituents
There are currently 95 S&P constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive gains and 39 constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive losses.
| Consecutive Days | # of Gainers | # of Losers |
|---|---|---|
| 3D | 35 | 17 |
| 4D | 49 | 10 |
| 5D | 9 | 3 |
| 6D | 1 | 7 |
| 7D or more | 1 | 2 |
| Total >=3 D | 95 | 39 |
Key Financials for Supernus Pharmaceuticals (SUPN)
Last 2 Fiscal Years:
| Metric | FY2023 | FY2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $607.5 Mil | $661.8 Mil |
| Operating Income | $13.4 Mil | $75.6 Mil |
| Net Income | $1.3 Mil | $73.9 Mil |
Last 2 Fiscal Quarters:
| Metric | 2025 FQ2 | 2025 FQ3 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $165.5 Mil | $192.1 Mil |
| Operating Income | $12.1 Mil | $-60.2 Mil |
| Net Income | $22.5 Mil | $-45.1 Mil |
While SUPN stock looks attractive given its winning streak, investing in a single stock without detailed, thorough analysis can be risky. The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.