Should S&P Global Stock Holders Look At Intercontinental Exchange Instead?
Over the past twelve months, S&P Global (SPGI) stock has lost 12.3%, trailing a 2.8% decline for Intercontinental Exchange. Investors typically buy both companies to capture the recurring fees generated by global financial markets. S&P Global collects those fees from credit ratings and indices, while Intercontinental Exchange relies on its exchanges and bond data. In July, however, S&P Global lowered its 2026 forecasts for revenue growth and earnings. So is that a reason to look at Intercontinental Exchange instead?
Did S&P Global’s Business Weaken In July?
The details from management on its July 28 call suggest otherwise. S&P Global did lower its 2026 revenue growth forecast. The new range sits at 5.9% to 7.9%, representing a 6.9% midpoint, compared to a previous forecast of 7.3%. The company also set its adjusted earnings forecast at $17.50 to $17.75 a share, down from a $19.40 to $19.65 range that still included Mobility.
That downward revision follows the company spinning off its Mobility division on July 1, meaning those operations no longer appear in continuing results. The spin-off may account for much of the cut. S&P Global kept its forecast for growth excluding deals and currency moves at 6.0% to 8.0%. The company even raised its 2026 growth forecast for Ratings, and increased its outlook for Indices to between 12% and 14%. Executives also noted that the new earnings range still represents double-digit growth in adjusted earnings per share.
Intercontinental Exchange changed a different kind of number on July 30 by raising its 2026 operating expense forecast. The company now projects costs will run between $5.14 billion and $5.18 billion, up from a previous estimate of $5.12 billion. On fees, Intercontinental Exchange expects recurring fees from its Fixed Income & Data Services business to grow 7.0% to 8.0% in 2026. Ultimately, S&P Global lowered its projections as the company got smaller, while Intercontinental Exchange updated its guidance to reflect a higher cost forecast.
Intercontinental Exchange Has More Debt Against Its Market Value
Intercontinental Exchange carries debt equal to 24% of its market value, compared to 13.4% for S&P Global.
S&P Global is choosing to add debt of its own, though. Management raised its 2026 buyback target by nearly $3 billion, bringing the total to more than $7 billion. To help fund those buybacks, it said in July that it expects to issue about $2 billion of new debt before year-end. Still, management noted that about $500 million of the cash it received from the Mobility spin-off would go to retiring debt. By the end of 2026, management expects debt of 2.7 to 2.8 times EBITDA, a measure of operating earnings. That sits above the company’s internal target of 2.0 to 2.5 times, and management expects to be back inside the target by the end of 2027.
Where Is Intercontinental Exchange Ahead Of S&P Global?
Intercontinental Exchange currently trades at a lower multiple of earnings, and its revenue has grown faster over three years. Its stock trades at 21.3 times trailing earnings, against 23.7 for S&P Global. Revenue for Intercontinental Exchange grew 12.0% a year on average over three years, outpacing the 10.2% pace set by S&P Global.
However, S&P Global holds the edge on growth over the past twelve months: its revenue rose 9.7%, against 6.9% for Intercontinental Exchange. The two remain level on profitability, as each company kept about 41% of its revenue as operating profit over the past twelve months.
Which company comes out ahead depends on what you want from the holding. S&P Global is the stronger of the two if you care most about low debt and growth over the past twelve months. Intercontinental Exchange offers the same margin, faster three-year revenue growth and a lower multiple of earnings. Going forward, debt is the measure to watch at S&P Global since the company is borrowing to buy back shares. Debt above 2.8 times EBITDA when S&P Global reports its 2026 results would mean the company ended the year with more debt against its earnings than management forecast.
How To Act On SPGI?
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