Has Buying Snowflake Stock’s Dips Paid Off?
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Snowflake (SNOW) stock has fallen 19.8% since its high close on October 9, 2026, and a slide this fast tempts many investors to buy in. The shares have taken falls of this size before. How did the people who bought those earlier drops fare a year later?
Half Of Snowflake’s Past Drops Ended A Year Higher
Since September 2020, Snowflake has fallen more than 20% within 30 trading days on ten separate occasions. A full year has now passed since eight of those drops. Twelve months later, the stock traded higher in four of those instances and remained flat in one. The median result a year on was a gain of 0.5%, with outcomes ranging from a 46% loss after the January 2022 drop to a 67% gain after the June 2024 one. The two latest drops, in December 2025 and April 2026, are still less than a year old.
Holding for that year meant sitting through a further fall along the way. In the median case, the lowest close in the following year was 14.1% below the price on the day of the drop. The year’s best close came a median 277 days, about nine months, after the drop. At that best close the stock stood a median 55.9% above its price on the day of the drop, yet only after the June 2024 drop did the stock finish the year near its own best close.
| Time after a past dip | Past dips with that much time after them | Median SNOW price change |
|---|---|---|
| 21 trading days | 10 | 3.0% |
| 63 trading days | 10 | 2.0% |
| 126 trading days | 10 | 21.5% |
| 252 trading days | 8 | 0.5% |
| Dip date | Fall to dip date (SNOW / SPY) | 1 year later | Best in that year (days to it) | Worst in that year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | -21.8% / -2.0% | – | – | – |
| 2025-12-15 | -21.7% / 0% | – | – | – |
| 2025-03-28 | -21.8% / -9.0% | 1.0% | 84.0% (220 days) | -13.3% |
| 2024-06-18 | -22.0% / 6.0% | 67.0% | 67.5% (370 days) | -14.9% |
| 2024-03-08 | -21.2% / 5.0% | -6.0% | 18.7% (347 days) | -33.2% |
| 2023-03-17 | -23.8% / -6.0% | 16.0% | 74.0% (334 days) | -0.597% |
| 2022-11-04 | -23.1% / 2.0% | 21.0% | 44.3% (223 days) | -8.1% |
| 2022-01-20 | -23.1% / -4.0% | -46.0% | 11.4% (21 days) | -59.4% |
| 2021-03-08 | -25.1% / 0% | -10.0% | 87.8% (253 days) | -12.0% |
| 2021-01-20 | -27.3% / 4.0% | 0.0% | 42.6% (300 days) | -33.2% |
| Median of 8 complete years | – | 0.5% | 55.9% (277 days) | -14.1% |
Snowflake Is Growing Faster And Losing Less
Snowflake’s revenue grew 35.1% from a year earlier in fiscal Q2 2027, the quarter that ended July 31, 2026. This compares with 31.8% growth in fiscal Q2 2026. On the September 2, 2026 call, management said product revenue growth had picked up for a third straight quarter, helped by its core data platform business and a meaningful step up in AI revenue.
The company still reports a loss, but a smaller one. Its fiscal Q2 2027 operating loss came to 17.0% of revenue, down from 29.7% a year earlier. Over the twelve months to July 31, 2026, Snowflake brought in $1.25 billion of cash from operations, up from $838 million in the twelve months before.
Buyers pay a steep price for that business. At the November 10 close, Snowflake traded at 19.0 times its sales over the last twelve months, compared with 3.2 times for the S&P 500.
Snowflake Earns A Lower Margin On Its AI Work
Snowflake keeps less of each sales dollar from its newest AI work. Management lowered its fiscal 2027 forecast for adjusted product gross margin to 74%, from 75% in its previous forecast. The new outlook includes more revenue from fast-growing AI workloads, whose contribution margin is lower today, management said. Management also said Snowflake remains on track for GAAP profitability, a profit on its reported figures, in fiscal Q4 2028.
Today’s buyer gets a company that grows faster and loses less than it did a year ago, is priced at a large premium to the market, and earns a thinner margin on its newest AI work. Snowflake is expected to report in December 2026, when its revenue growth and gross margin will be the figures to watch. Does that business give a buyer reason to expect more from this drop than the roughly flat year that followed the typical one before?
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