Is Rivian Stock Cheap Enough Yet?

Rivian Automotive (RIVN) stock lost 30.5% over the three months to October 19, 2026, while the S&P 500 gained 2.7%. The shares closed that day at their lowest level of the past year, 45% below their high of last December. A buyer at this price is betting that Rivian’s losses keep shrinking as its cheaper R2 SUV ramps up. So is it still too early to buy Rivian?

How Cheap Is Rivian Stock On Its Sales?

At $12.34, Rivian sells for 2.8 times sales over the last twelve months, about a quarter above the low of 2.2 it reached at the end of March 2024. Because Rivian lost money in each of its last five quarters, a price-to-earnings ratio means nothing here.

Rivian’s gross margin has turned over the past year. Over the twelve months to June 2026, Rivian kept 7.5% of its sales as gross profit, against a gross loss equal to 4.3% of sales a year earlier. In the second quarter, that profit came from software and services rather than from cars. Helped by development work for its joint venture with Volkswagen Group, the software and services segment earned $215 million of gross profit, while the automotive business lost $36 million at the gross level. So Rivian is cheap on sales only for a buyer who expects the car business itself to turn a profit.

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What Are Rivian Buyers Expecting From Fiscal Q3 2026?

Analysts expect third-quarter revenue of about $2.02 billion, against $1.66 billion in the second, and they expect sales to keep climbing. Deliveries point the same way. Rivian reported record third-quarter deliveries on October 2, beating analysts’ estimates. In July, management raised its full-year delivery guide to 65,000 to 70,000 vehicles, lifting the midpoint to 67,500 from 64,500.

Profit is another matter. On the July 30 call, management said the complexity of a new vehicle launch would hurt automotive gross profit in the third quarter. They also said the first half had $164 million of regulatory credits behind its gross profit, and that the second half would be without them. So higher sales in the third quarter can still come with weaker profit from cars.

Rivian Stock Has Swung Both Ways After Reports

Rivian is expected to report its fiscal third quarter of 2026 on or around October 29, 2026. In the two trading days after each of its two latest reports, the stock fell 11.5% and 8.8%. It rose 21.8% and 17.6% after the two reports before those.

Owning Rivian through rough markets has cost more than owning the index. In the 2025 tariff shock, Rivian stock fell 24% at its worst, against 19% for the S&P 500.

If third-quarter revenue clears what analysts expect and the automotive gross loss holds near the second quarter’s $36 million, waiting past October 29 would have been too late. If the automotive gross loss widens instead, buying now would have been too early.

Is Too Much Of Your Wealth Riding On One Stock?

Rivian Automotive leaves investors asking whether they are too early or too late. When one position grows into a large part of your wealth, a sharp fall can hurt your whole plan, and selling to spread the money out can bring a large tax bill. Our partner advisory firm offers a free strategy review of ways to protect a concentrated position and unwind it with less tax.

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