What Is Next For Rigetti Stock?
Shares of Rigetti Computing (RGTI) have fallen 68% over the past twelve months, trailing the 17.0% return of the S&P 500. Despite this steep decline, the company retains a valuation of about $4.7 billion while losing about $0.2 billion over its last twelve months. Investors paying this premium appear to be betting on sales that have not arrived yet. Current market pricing appears to assume a sales volume many times larger than a handful of orders of this size. At the S&P 500’s 3.1 times sales, a $4.7 billion value would need about $1.5 billion of yearly sales.
Rigetti Is Selling Quantum Computing Systems To Customers
The hardware maker is currently focused on selling quantum computing systems, and early buyers are stepping up. Its product is Novera, a system delivered directly to a customer’s own site.
This strategy is beginning to register in the financial results. Rigetti recorded revenue of about $5.1 million for the second quarter of 2026, up from $1.8 million a year earlier. During an August 6, 2026 call, management noted that Novera sales drove the increase as older purchase orders converted into recognized revenue.
Corporations are driving much of this initial activity. Management noted that commercial organizations buying systems for their own sites accounted for most of the sales growth in the first half. Alongside corporate interest, the company also reported more demand for Novera from national labs and universities.
Rigetti’s Orders Are Small Next To Its Value
Next to Rigetti’s own sales, one major deal stands out: C-DAC has ordered a 108-qubit system for India at a price of $8.4 million. That single contract is worth more than all the revenue Rigetti reported for the second quarter. Management expects to recognize it as revenue in the fourth quarter of 2026.
Compare an order of that size with the price investors are paying for the company. Rigetti stock trades at 350.1 times its sales over the past twelve months, compared with a multiple of 3.1 times for the S&P 500. Current market pricing appears to assume a sales volume many times larger than a handful of orders of this size, a reality that holds true even with shares trading 74.9% below their 52-week high.
Can Rigetti Deliver The 108-Qubit System On Schedule?
As of the August 6 call, Rigetti had not yet turned the C-DAC order into revenue. The transaction only clears that accounting threshold after the company installs the system and it passes performance acceptance testing. Management indicated that revenue will continue to fluctuate based on the timing of system deliveries, meaning one strong quarter says little about the next.
Management also wants to make the proprietary 108-qubit system more accurate. That hardware currently demonstrates a median two-qubit gate fidelity of roughly 99.1%, and management is aiming for about 99.5% later in 2026.
In the meantime, the company is consuming capital. Cash and investments dropped to about $541.3 million at the end of the second quarter, down from $569 million three months earlier.
Booking revenue from the C-DAC order in the fourth quarter of 2026 would show that Rigetti can install a 108-qubit system and get a customer to accept it.
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