How Big Could Qualcomm Stock’s Next Fall Be?

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Qualcomm (QCOM) stock has already fallen 27.8% from its highest close of the past year, reached on May 29, 2026. Between September 25 and October 26 alone, the shares lost 11.1%, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.8%. Any market sell-off from here would add to that decline. In past market shocks, how far did Qualcomm stock fall, and how long did it take to come back?

Qualcomm Stock Has Usually Fallen Further Than The Market

Qualcomm recorded its two largest stock declines across the 15 market shocks since mid-2007, dropping 41.0% both times. The first occurred during the 2014-2016 drop in oil prices, a period when the S&P 500 fell 6.8%. The second aligned with the 2022 inflation shock, when the broader index lost 24.0%. On average, Qualcomm shares fell 24.1% across all 15 shocks, compared with a 15.8% drop for the S&P 500. The market’s most severe downturn of the period reversed that dynamic. During the 2008-2009 financial crisis, Qualcomm dropped 27.0% while the S&P 500 lost 53.0%.

Qualcomm stock ultimately reclaimed its pre-fall high following all 15 shocks, recording a median recovery time of 5.3 months from its low. Four of those rebounds stretched beyond a year. The slowest recovery followed the oil price drop, requiring 30.6 months from the low.

Sales And Margin Are Down In Qualcomm’s Latest Quarter

Qualcomm reported a 4.0% year-over-year revenue drop in fiscal Q3 2026, which ended June 28, following a 3.5% decline in fiscal Q2. Over the four quarters ending June 28, revenue totaled $44.1 billion, keeping the metric 1.9% above the previous year. Profit fell at a steeper rate than sales. The company posted an operating margin of 16.3% in fiscal Q3 2026, down from 26.6% a year earlier. Qualcomm also carries relatively light debt compared with the broader market, resting at 8.0% of its market value against 19.4% for the S&P 500.

Management Expects Lower Apple Revenue And Phone Demand

During the July 29, 2026 earnings call, management said Qualcomm’s share of the then-upcoming iPhone launch was expected to be materially lower than its earlier estimate of 20%, partly because of its own supply constraints. Because of this, management expects Apple revenue to step down faster starting in fiscal Q4 2026, and to come in below its earlier guide of a little over $2 billion in 2027.

Management also expects the wider phone market to shrink. It said the entire industry faces unprecedented memory prices and higher manufacturing costs, and that it expects the handset market to be down by a low-teens percentage in 2026 against 2025. On its own adjusted measure, management expects the chip business’s gross margin to sit slightly below its historical range in the short term. For fiscal Q4 2026, the company guided revenue of $9.7 billion to $10.5 billion, below the $11.3 billion Qualcomm reported a year earlier. Revenue from phone chips, guided at about $5.2 billion for the quarter, represents the measure to watch when Qualcomm reports in November 2026.

Does This Mean You Should Act On QCOM?

Our purpose is to inform you with unique data so you make the right investment decisions. That said, betting on a single stock is always risky, no matter which direction you choose.

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