Can D-Wave Quantum Stock Really Hit $60? Breaking Down the Bull Case
The current situation for quantum computing stocks is certainly compelling. D-Wave Quantum stock (NYSE: QBTS), for example, is up over 200% this year, attracting a surge of interest from retail investors. Furthermore, institutional players like JPMorgan also plan to invest in the sector.
While these factors indicate strong momentum, there have been mixed signals regarding official government interest. Earlier reports suggested the Trump administration was considering acquiring stakes in quantum computing companies; however, the US Department of Commerce has denied any ongoing negotiations. Still, a spokesperson for one of the quantum computing companies did talk about engagement with the government for funding, according to the WSJ report.
See, the overall momentum in quantum stocks is clearly visible. This leads to the key question: Is this rally sustainable, or are we witnessing another speculative bubble?
Before we delve into this discussion, if you seek an upside with less volatility than holding an individual stock like QBTS, consider the High Quality Portfolio. It has comfortably outperformed its benchmark—a combination of the S&P 500, Russell, and S&P MidCap indexes—and has achieved returns exceeding 105% since its inception. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.
Image by Markus Winkler from Pixabay
Why This Could Actually Work
The Government Catalyst
The WSJ report about potential federal investment isn’t just noise. When Uncle Sam takes a stake in emerging technology, it does two things: validates the sector and provides a capital runway. We saw this playbook with SpaceX and the commercial space industry, and more recently with the rare earth minerals company MP Materials. If the administration follows through, quantum computing suddenly becomes a national priority with real money behind it.
What would justify a move to $60+?
Let’s be specific about the catalysts:
- Federal Contracts and Strategic Partnerships: If D-Wave secures government contracts—particularly in defense, cryptography, or national security applications—we’re talking about predictable, high-margin revenue. Government work provides credibility that unlocks private sector deals. A single significant federal contract could revalue the entire company.
- Commercial Traction Acceleration: The shift from “interesting research project” to “companies actually buying this” is everything. If D-Wave announces Fortune 500 clients using quantum systems for real business problems — optimization, logistics, drug discovery — the stock gets repriced immediately.
- Technological Breakthroughs: Any demonstration of quantum advantage in practical applications moves the needle. We’re not talking about theoretical supremacy papers. We mean: “Company X saved $Y million using D-Wave’s system.” That’s when institutional money gets serious.
- Market Expansion and Ecosystem Development: The quantum computing market is projected to grow exponentially. If D-Wave maintains or expands its market share as the total addressable market explodes, the revenue trajectory becomes exponential rather than linear. Developer adoption, cloud accessibility, and industry-specific solutions all feed this growth.
- Profitability Pathway Clarity: Speculative stocks often surge when the path to profitability becomes visible. If D-Wave provides guidance showing positive cash flow within the next few years or demonstrates improving unit economics, institutional investors who currently sit on the sidelines will reconsider.
Why D-Wave specifically?
D-Wave has the first-mover advantage in commercial quantum computing. While competitors like IBM and Google focus on gate-model quantum computers, D-Wave’s quantum annealing approach is already solving real optimization problems. They’re not waiting for perfect qubits — they’re shipping systems today.
This technological leadership matters. When the market shifts from research to commercial application, being years ahead in deployment creates a compounding advantage.
The Reality Check
Make no mistake: this remains a speculative bet. Quantum computing’s mainstream commercial viability is still years away. The technology could hit unforeseen roadblocks. Competitors could leapfrog D-Wave’s approach. The revenue might not materialize as quickly as bulls expect.
See our take on – What’s The Downside Risk For D-Wave Quantum Stock? – for more details.
But here’s the thing—you don’t need quantum computing to fully mature for the stock to hit $60. You just need continued momentum on these catalysts and sustained market belief in the trajectory.
Still, investing in a single stock like QBTS without comprehensive analysis can be risky. Consider the Trefis Reinforced Value (RV) Portfolio, which has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (combination of the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 benchmark indices) to produce strong returns for investors. Why is that? The quarterly rebalanced mix of large-, mid-, and small-cap RV Portfolio stocks provided a responsive way to make the most of upbeat market conditions while limiting losses when markets head south, as detailed in RV Portfolio performance metrics.
Bottom Line
D-Wave is positioned at the intersection of technological innovation, government interest, and institutional capital flows. The path to $60+ isn’t about quantum computing “winning”—it’s about D-Wave executing on commercialization while the market remains excited about the potential.
The catalysts are identifiable and trackable. Watch federal contract announcements, commercial customer wins, technological demonstrations, strategic investments, market share data, and profitability metrics.
For investors with risk tolerance, the asymmetric upside is real. Just remember: so is the downside. This is a conviction play, not a core holding.
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