What Could PayPal Stock Be Worth In Three Years?
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PayPal (PYPL) stock trades at 10.2 times earnings. This multiple sits below the stock’s 13.5 average at quarter ends over the past three years, as if investors expect little growth. Without a higher P/E, PayPal must earn more for its shares to rise. The company has to sell more through Venmo, Pay Later and Braintree while branded checkout grows slowly, and it must hold its profit margin as it spends more in 2027. If PayPal does that, how much more would a share bought at $56.95 be worth three years from now?
PayPal Stock Would Gain Modestly In A Three-Year Scenario
A Trefis scenario built on the company’s own figures values a PayPal share at about $63.84 three years from now, against $56.95 today. This scenario grows revenue at 3.5% a year and holds the P/E where it is. That growth rate is four-fifths of the latest twelve-month pace because growth has slowed. The scenario also lifts the net margin to 13.9%, returning part of the way to its three-year average, and it assumes no changes to today’s share count, which fell 21.9% over the past three years.
The table sets today’s figures beside the scenario’s three years out.
| Today | In three years (scenario) | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $34.3 billion | $38.0 billion |
| Net margin | 13.8% | 13.9% |
| Earnings | $4.73 billion | $5.30 billion |
| P/E | 10.2 | 10.2 |
| Share price | $56.95 | $63.84 |
Higher revenue accounts for about 90% of the gain, and the rest comes from a slightly higher net margin.
PayPal has grown revenue faster than the scenario’s pace over the past twelve months, but its sales grew only 2.0% in the third quarter of fiscal 2026. Management credited that growth to Braintree, Venmo and currency moves. Management said incentives and the end of an EU tax exemption, a change that hurt some merchants, partly offset those gains.
The faster growth sits outside branded checkout, where payment volume has grown in a 1% to 2% range for four quarters. Management said Pay Later and Pay with Venmo grew 25% and 43% in the third quarter, and Braintree’s payment volume grew 10%.
Once a core product slows, newer ones have to carry the growth. Look at Tesla, which still drew 98% of last quarter’s deliveries from the Model 3 and Model Y while its deliveries fell two years in a row. Read Trefis Big Story: How Tesla Blundered.
Can PayPal Keep Margins Steady While Spending More?
Net profit has not held steady so far. PayPal’s net margin was 13.8% over the twelve months to September 2026, down from 15.0% a year earlier. In the third quarter alone, the margin was 12.5%, against 14.8% a year before.
Operating profit looks better. The third-quarter operating margin rose to 19.3%, up from 18.9% a year earlier. Management has cut more than 2,000 jobs and expects at least $1.5 billion in gross yearly cost savings over two to three years.
Management raised its fiscal 2026 forecast for adjusted earnings per share to about $5.60, from $5.38 in July, but gave no revenue figure for the year. The company plans to spend more in 2027 while targeting adjusted earnings growth similar to fiscal 2026’s. Management also warned that savings and spending will not match quarter by quarter.
How PayPal’s Upside Changes Under Different Assumptions
Each row below changes one assumption and keeps the other two as in the scenario.
| If instead | Upside |
|---|---|
| Nothing changes (the scenario) | 12.1% |
| Revenue growth of 1.5% a year instead of 3.5% | 5.7% |
| Net margin of 14.3% in year three instead of 13.9% | 15.1% |
| 5 years at the same assumptions instead of 3 | 20.1% |
PayPal’s net margin today is below its average for the past three years, so the row that returns it to that average shows a larger gain. Its twelve-month revenue growth has slowed, dropping from 8.0% in the period to September 2024 to 4.5% a year later, and it slipped again in the latest year.
The scenario’s share price would show no gain after three years if revenue shrank about 0.4% a year, against growth of 4.4% in the twelve months to September 2026. The net margin could fall to 12.4%, against 13.8% today, with the same result. The same would happen if the P/E slipped to 9.1, from 10.2 now.
PayPal’s revenue is growing faster than the scenario’s pace over twelve months, but not in its latest quarter. Its net margin sits below last year’s level while management plans to spend more. Revenue growth and the net margin in PayPal’s fourth-quarter report, expected in February 2027, are the numbers to watch, and management said it will give its 2027 guidance on that call.
Sitting On A Big Gain In PayPal?
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