What Needs To Be True To Buy Plug Power Stock?
Shares of Plug Power (PLUG) have lost 57% over the past twelve months. During that same period, the S&P 500 returned 17.3%. Even so, management raised its sales forecast in August and repeated that the hydrogen company would reach positive EBITDA in the fourth quarter. Buying the stock today essentially means betting on that promise. How much has Plug delivered so far, and what is still to come?
Plug Power Expects Positive EBITDA Before The Year Ends
Management is targeting positive EBITDA, or earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, for the fourth quarter of 2026. The company repeated that target during its August 10, 2026 call. At the same time, management raised its forecast for full-year revenue growth to 15% to 16%, up from a previous range of 13% to 15%.
The company has delivered part of this progress already. Revenue in the second quarter of 2026 reached $178 million, up approximately 9% from the first quarter. Gross margin also improved. It improved to about negative 0.9% in the second quarter, compared with negative 30.7% a year earlier. Management credited its restructuring program, better service margins and fuller use of its hydrogen plants.
What Does Plug Power Still Have To Deliver?
Plug still needs to deliver a much stronger second half. Management expects second-half sales to be 40% higher than the first half, mostly from equipment volume. Plug’s equipment includes the GenEco electrolyzer, a machine that produces hydrogen, as well as units sold for material handling. The company also expects the majority of this second-half volume to arrive in the fourth quarter.
This means most of the second-half volume and the EBITDA target both depend on a single quarter. During the same call, management noted that with big projects, things are “a little bit fluid”.
Plug is also still using cash. Its net cash use was $61 million in the second quarter, which was about 58% lower than in the first quarter. The company ended the second quarter with $161.9 million of unrestricted cash, while holding another $510 million of restricted cash. In August, management stated that roughly $155 million of that restricted cash was scheduled to release over the next 12 months.
How Is Plug Power Stock Priced Against Its Sales?
Buyers are paying 3.0 times Plug’s sales, against 3.1 times for the S&P 500. A price-to-earnings ratio is not meaningful, as the company lost money over the past twelve months. The stock closed at $1.62 on October 12, 2026. This marked its lowest price in 52 weeks.
Those valuation figures are close, but sales for Plug and the S&P 500 have moved in opposite directions. Plug’s revenue shrank by an average of 4.4% a year over three years. Over the same period, S&P 500 revenue grew 5.9% a year. The growth management forecasts for 2026 would represent a break from those three years.
Plug’s EBITDA for the fourth quarter of 2026 is the key metric to watch. This figure will arrive with that quarter’s results after the year ends. A positive number would mean Plug met a target that management called a real turning point for the company. A negative one would mean it missed the target it repeated in August.
How To Act On PLUG?
Now you know PLUG better. And that’s our purpose: to make you informed before you invest your money. However, making a bet on a single stock carries its own risks.
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