Is Planet Labs Stock’s Fall A Bargain Or A Warning?
Shares of Planet Labs (PL) dropped 27% between October 6 and October 16, 2026, closing the period at $13.56. Investors watching the satellite data provider post rapid sales growth must now weigh whether this steep decline offers a buying opportunity or signals a prolonged downturn. So what happened after Planet Labs’ earlier declines of this size?
What Followed Planet Labs’ Past Falls Of This Size?
Investors stepping in after these drops generally lost money. Planet Labs stock fell more than 30% over 30 trading days on nine separate occasions between April 2021 and October 2026. Seven of those selloffs occurred over a year ago, and the shares traded higher a year later following only two of those events. The median result a year on was a 25% loss. Those outcomes spanned a broad range, stretching from a 57% loss to a 576% gain after the fall of March 2025.
Shareholders holding through the volatility also faced a deeper fall along the way. In the median case, the lowest close in the year after a fall hit 40.5% below the price on the day of the drop. The highest price during that ensuing year arrived a median of 127 days, or about four months, after the initial fall. The two most recent falls occurred in June and September 2026, making them too new to judge.
| Time after a past dip | Past dips with that much time after them | Median PL price change |
|---|---|---|
| 21 trading days | 8 | -4.0% |
| 63 trading days | 8 | -6.5% |
| 126 trading days | 7 | -21.0% |
| 252 trading days | 7 | -25.0% |
| Dip date | PL price change over the 30 trading days to the dip date | SPY price change over the same days | PL price change 252 trading days after the dip date | Highest price in those 252 trading days, against the dip-date price | Calendar days to that highest price | Lowest price in those 252 trading days, against the dip-date price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | -30.9% | 0% | window not complete | window not complete | window not complete | window not complete |
| 2026-06-24 | -37.1% | -1.0% | window not complete | window not complete | window not complete | window not complete |
| 2025-03-10 | -33.1% | -8.0% | 576.0% | 690.7% | 312 | -18.7% |
| 2023-10-12 | -30.7% | -4.0% | -1.0% | 23.5% | 312 | -26.5% |
| 2023-07-20 | -31.3% | 6.0% | -31.0% | 12.9% | 12 | -49.4% |
| 2023-03-20 | -30.2% | -4.0% | -30.0% | 41.6% | 80 | -40.5% |
| 2022-10-26 | -32.7% | -3.0% | -57.0% | 21.1% | 37 | -56.7% |
| 2022-05-11 | -30.8% | -15.0% | 7.0% | 86.3% | 127 | -14.7% |
| 2021-12-14 | -32.0% | 1.0% | -25.0% | 4.0% | 275 | -44.2% |
| Median of 7 complete windows | – | – | -25.0% | 23.5% | 127 | -40.5% |
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Planet Labs Is Growing Fast But Still Losing Money
Planet Labs generated $116 million in revenue during fiscal Q2 2027, the quarter ended July 31, 2026, representing a 58.1% increase from a year earlier. The company brought in $118 million of cash from operations over the past twelve months, yet its operating loss came to 27.2% of revenue. At the end of July, its cash and short-term investments exceeded its debt by $367 million, equating to about $1.02 for each share.
Valuation presents a more difficult hurdle. Planet Labs stock trades at 12.9 times sales over the past twelve months, compared with a multiple of 3.1 for the S&P 500.
The latest quarter also had a one-time lift. Management said the quarter’s revenue beat—topping its guidance range of $102 million to $107 million—came mainly from the handover of the first Pelican satellite for the Swedish Armed Forces. Revenue booked all at once, rather than over the life of a contract, made up 12% of the quarter’s revenue, up from 1% a year earlier. Management expects revenue of $101 million to $105 million for fiscal Q3 2027, coming in below the reported second quarter. The company anticipates releasing those results on or around December 8, 2026.
What Must You Believe To Buy Planet Labs Now?
Buying the stock today requires conviction that the current slide will end like the recovery of March 2025, rather than following the pattern of most prior drops. Investors must also trust that Planet Labs will maintain its growth trajectory once the Pelican handover is behind it. The business looks more like a bargain: management’s guide still points to about 27% sales growth over the $81.3 million reported in fiscal Q3 2026, cash is coming in and the company holds more cash than debt. Yet its past falls and its price against the broader market point the other way. Investors parsing the upcoming December report should focus primarily on revenue for fiscal Q3 2027 measured against management’s guide. So is Planet Labs’ growth strong enough to make this fall a bargain, when its past falls and its price both look more like a warning?
Is Too Much Of Your Wealth Riding On One Stock?
A fall like this makes Planet Labs PBC holders want to act, by buying more or by getting out. When one position grows into a large part of your wealth, a sharp fall can hurt your whole plan, and selling to spread the money out can bring a large tax bill. Glenn Caldicott, CIO of our Boston-based partner firm Empirical Asset Management, an SEC-registered investment adviser, offers a free 15-minute strategy review of ways to protect a concentrated position and unwind it with less tax.