Covid-19 vaccine developer Novavax’s stock (NASDAQ: NVAX) has had a rough 2022 so far, remaining down by almost 60% year-to-date. The sell-off comes as demand for Covid-19 vaccines falls amid a significant decline in Covid-19 cases, with daily global infections falling from around 3.5 million in January to levels of around 500,000 currently. Moreover, the big initial inoculation drive of the early pandemic is now largely complete. Novavax missed out on these big sales, given that its shot has only recently been greenlighted in a couple of markets including Japan, the E.U., and South Korea, with its shot approval in the U.S. market still pending. Wall Street has also been steadily revising revenue and earnings estimates for the company lower. That said, the stock saw a big rally on Monday, rising about 19%, as the U.S. Food and Drug Administration announced that an advisory committee is set to meet to review Novavax’s emergency use authorization filing for its shot on June 7. However, despite the recent gains, the stock still remains down by 30% over the last month (around 21 trading days).
However, now that Novavax stock has seen a decline of about 30% over the last month, will it continue its downward trajectory in the near term, or is a recovery imminent? Going by historical performance, there is a roughly equal chance of a rise or fall in NVAX stock over the next month. Out of 196 instances in the last ten years that NVAX stock saw a twenty-one-day decline of 25% or more, 99 of them resulted in NVAX stock rising over the subsequent one-month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 99 out of 196, or about a 51% chance of a rise in NVAX stock over the coming month. See our analysis on Novavax Chance of A Rise for more details.
Calculation of ‘Event Probability’ and ‘Chance of Rise’ using last ten years’ data
- After moving 2.4% or more over five days, the stock rose in the next five days on 51% of the occasions.
- After moving -6.8% or more over ten days, the stock rose in the next ten days on 51% of the occasions.
- After moving -30% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose in the next twenty-one days on 51% of the occasions.
This pattern suggests that NVAX stock has a roughly equal chance of a rise or decline in the near term.
|S&P 500 Return||1%||-12%||87%|
|Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio||0%||-17%||227%|
 Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 5/3/2022
 Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016
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