Following Strong Earnings Release, Micron Technology Stock Looks Set To Extend Its Rally

+11.55%
Upside
70.60
Market
78.75
Trefis
MU: Micron Technology logo
MU
Micron Technology

Micron Technology stock (NASDAQ: MU) is up 11% in just one month (21 trading days), outperforming the S&P 500 which was up just a little under 4%. If you look at the change over the last five and ten days, too, the stock has returned 13% and 9.5%, beating the market on both occasions. Micron reported stellar Q1 ’22 earnings earlier last week (Micron’s fiscal year ends in August), with revenue jumping from $5.78 billion in Q1 ’21 to $7.69 billion in Q1 ’22. Gross margins jumped from 30.1% to 46.4% and operating margins jumped more than 2x from 15% to 34.2%. This helped drive an almost 3x rise in EPS over this period, from $0.71 in Q1 ’21 to $2.04 in Q1 ’22. The sharp rise was clearly a reaction to this strong earnings release.

Now, is Micron stock set to continue its rally or could we expect a pullback? We believe that there is a strong 65% chance of a rise in Micron stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on MU Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about MU historical returns and comparison to peers, see Micron Technology (MU) Stock Return.

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Twenty-One Day: MU 11%, vs. S&P500 3.9%; Outperformed market

(25% likelihood event; 65% probability of rise over next 21 days)

  • MU stock rose 11% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 3.9%
  • A change of 11% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 25% likelihood event, which has occurred 629 times out of 2515 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 629 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 408 occasions
  • This points to a 65% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: MU 9.5%, vs. S&P500 2.2%; Outperformed market

(16% likelihood event; 53% probability of rise over next 10 days)

  • MU stock rose 9.5% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 2.2%
  • A change of 9.5% or more over ten trading days is a 16% likelihood event, which has occurred 392 times out of 2515 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 392 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 207 occasions
  • This points to a 53% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: MU 13%, vs. S&P500 4.8%; Outperformed market

(3% likelihood event; 42% probability of rise over next five days)

  • MU stock rose 13% over a five-day trading period ending 12/27/2021, compared to the broader market (S&P500) rise of 4.8%
  • A change of 13% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 3% likelihood event, which has occurred 76 times out of 2515 in the last ten years
  • Of these 76 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 32 occasions
  • This points to a 42% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

 

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high-quality portfolio that’s beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

Returns Dec 2021
MTD [1]
2021
YTD [1]
2017-21
Total [2]
 MU Return 11% 23% 323%
 S&P 500 Return 4% 27% 113%
 Trefis MS Portfolio Return 2% 47% 297%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 12/28/2021
[2] Cumulative total returns since 2017

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