Should You Sell Your Moderna Stock Now?
Investors holding Moderna (MRNA) stock have a large gain to either keep or cash in. The shares returned 736% over the past year, far outpacing the 17.4% return for the S&P 500. The company says it is preparing for the potential launch of a cancer therapy after positive late-stage results, yet its sales over the past twelve months were lower than a year earlier. So how much of Moderna’s $90.3 billion market value do today’s sales actually support?
Little Of Moderna’s Price Comes From Today’s Sales
Very little. Moderna stock trades at 40.9 times its sales over the past twelve months, compared with 3.1 times for the S&P 500. A price-to-earnings ratio is not meaningful for Moderna, as the company lost money over that period.
Those sales came to $2.21 billion, down 27.7% from a year earlier. Moderna also spent far more than it took in. Its operating loss equaled 150.2% of sales, while the S&P 500 earned an operating profit of 18.5% of sales. As a result, buyers at today’s price appear to be paying mostly for products Moderna does not yet sell in volume.
What Is Moderna Building Beyond COVID Shots?
Moderna is developing three new sources of sales: a cancer therapy, a flu vaccine and the European market. The cancer therapy, intismeran autogene, is an individualized treatment developed with Merck. Moderna said in September that it was preparing for its potential launch following positive Phase 3 results. The company also added a chief operating officer role, which it said would support its increasing scale and diversification.
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved Moderna’s flu vaccine in August for people aged 50 and older. It is the first messenger RNA vaccine approved for seasonal flu. Europe represents the third opening. Management said on the fiscal Q2 2026 call that an exclusive partnership the EU set up during the pandemic has kept Moderna out of that market, and that the partnership expires in 2026. Management also said on the same call that Moderna signed a joint procurement contract with the European Commission for up to 24 million doses of its mRESVIA vaccine across 6 countries. The cancer therapy, the flu vaccine and Europe could each add sales that Moderna does not have today, and that is the case for holding the stock.
Moderna Is Spending More Cash Than It Brings In
Moderna recorded negative $1.24 billion in free cash flow over the past twelve months, against $5.14 billion of cash and short-term investments at the end of June. The company announced plans in August to raise $2.0 billion by selling convertible notes, debt that can later turn into shares, and said the money may help fund its cancer business.
The specific risk is that the COVID vaccine keeps weakening before the new products sell in volume. Reuters reported that Moderna missed Wall Street estimates for second-quarter revenue on weaker-than-expected sales of its COVID-19 shot. Management said it still expects total revenue to grow by up to 10% in 2026, adding that it has factored in potential future declines in COVID vaccination rates. Until the new products sell, Moderna is funding its losses with cash and borrowed money.
Moderna’s next quarterly report is expected on or around November 6, with its Analyst Day to follow on November 12. Revenue for fiscal Q3 2026, measured against $1.0 billion a year earlier, is the number to watch at that report.
Does This Mean You Should Act On MRNA?
Our purpose is to inform you with unique data so you make the right investment decisions. That said, betting on a single stock is always risky, no matter which direction you choose.
There is a smarter approach. Since its inception, the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio has returned 105%, beating the benchmark that combines the three major indices – the S&P 500, S&P Mid-cap, and Russell 2000. And it did so without taking the concentrated risk that comes with do-it-yourself stock picking. If that is how you want to invest, the HQ Portfolio is the place to start.
Spot an error or want more like this? Tell us in 10 seconds.