Which Dates Could Move Moderna Stock Most?
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Moderna (MRNA) stock returned 713.1% over the year to November 2, 2026, compared to 11.5% for the S&P 500. Yet management expects revenue to grow by up to 10% in 2026, a forecast that assumes no sales of mCOMBRIAX, its combined flu and COVID vaccine. Below are the events most likely to move Moderna stock over the next six months.
| What to watch | When | Which way it cuts |
|---|---|---|
| Moderna’s fiscal Q3 2026 results, with its COVID vaccine sales | November 2026 | Either way |
| First interim analysis of the Phase III Intismeran melanoma study | second half of 2026 | Either way |
| Possible analysis of the Intismeran kidney cancer study | possibly in 2026 | Either way |
| End of the EU pandemic partnership that kept Moderna out of the European market | 2026, with sales expected to begin in 2027 | In its favor |
| Year-end cash, guided to fall to $4.7 billion to $5.2 billion from $6.9 billion at the end of June | fiscal Q4 2026 report, February 2027 | Against the stock |
Intismeran’s Cancer Studies
Management said on the July 31 call that Moderna and its partner Merck are testing Intismeran, Moderna’s individualized cancer therapy, in a Phase III melanoma study. Management added that it would seek a faster review if the results were positive, and that a dedicated facility in Massachusetts can support a launch. On August 19, 2026, Merck and Moderna said the study met its main goal, and they released detailed results on October 22.
Intismeran looks like the program with the most weight, because Moderna’s price already sits far ahead of its sales. The stock trades at 39.8 times its revenue over the four quarters to June 2026, compared to 3.3 times for the S&P 500. That suggests buyers are paying for products still in trials. A second Intismeran study, in kidney cancer, could also reach the point for its analysis in 2026. Moderna’s announcement of the kidney cancer analysis is the thing to watch.
COVID Vaccine Sales In Moderna’s Next Report
Moderna is expected to report its fiscal Q3 2026 results on November 6, 2026, before the market opens. Management expects that quarter to bring in about 55% of second-half revenue. Spikevax and the newer mNEXSPIKE COVID vaccines remain the core of the business. They brought in $1.81 billion of revenue in fiscal 2025, which was 94.2% of Moderna’s $1.92 billion of revenue that year. Management’s full-year guide allows for potential declines in COVID vaccination rates, and management is counting on partnerships in the United Kingdom, Canada and Australia and on further growth of mNEXSPIKE. Set against that full-year guide, third-quarter revenue is the measure to watch in November 2026. Moderna’s revenue in the first half of 2026 was $0.5 billion.
Moderna’s Cash At The End Of 2026
Moderna is expected to report its fiscal Q4 2026 results in February 2027. Management projects cash and investments of $4.7 billion to $5.2 billion at the end of 2026, down from $6.9 billion at the end of June. That projection came before Moderna priced $2.6 billion of convertible notes on August 28, 2026. The $950 million Moderna paid in July under a litigation settlement accounts for part of that drop. Management raised the year-end projection on the July 31 call as it lowered its expected cash costs.
The shrinking cash pile matters because Moderna is still losing money, posting a net loss of $3.15 billion over the four quarters to June 2026. Year-end cash and investments, due in the February 2027 report, is the number to follow.
Can You Hold Moderna Stock Through These Dates?
Moderna stock fell 34.2% in 23 trading sessions from July 6 to August 6, 2026. This was its largest drop from a high over the past year, including a 10.8% fall in the single session to July 10.
If a fall of that size in your Moderna holding would push you to sell before the kidney cancer analysis or either report, the holding is larger than these dates allow. A holding you could watch fall that far and keep is one you could carry through the kidney cancer analysis and both reports.
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