Moody’s Reports Soon: How Has The Stock Reacted To Past Earnings? (and write Moody’s, possessive Moody’s, throughout the body).
Moodys (NYSE:MCO) is scheduled to report its earnings on Wednesday, October 21, 2026. The company has a market value of about $83.8 billion. Over the last twelve months it generated $8.2 billion in revenue and $3.8 billion in operating profit, with net income of $2.8 billion.
Nobody knows how the market will take the numbers. What we can measure is how Moodys stock has reacted to its past earnings releases, which is useful context for anyone trading around the event.
See the earnings reaction history of all stocks
Moodys’ Historical Odds Of A Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns, measured from the last close before each release:
- There are 20 earnings releases in the last five years, with 14 positive and 6 negative one-day (1D) returns. Positive 1D returns were seen 70% of the time.
- Over the last three years that share falls to 67%, across 12 releases.
- The median of the 14 positive 1D returns is 2.4%, and the median of the 6 negative ones is -3.2%.
- The largest one-day reactions were 6.5% and -7.9%.
The table below shows the 1D, 5-day (5D) and 21-day (21D) returns after each release, followed by summary statistics.
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7/22/2026 | -0.2% | -1.3% | 1.5% |
| 4/22/2026 | 1.6% | -0.3% | -3.1% |
| 2/18/2026 | 6.5% | 6.9% | 3.9% |
| 10/22/2025 | -2.5% | 1.2% | -2.5% |
| 7/23/2025 | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.4% |
| 4/22/2025 | 4.0% | 6.4% | 18.1% |
| 2/13/2025 | 4.4% | 1.2% | -11.4% |
| 10/22/2024 | -3.9% | -5.1% | -3.7% |
| 7/23/2024 | 0.3% | -0.04% | 5.3% |
| 5/2/2024 | 0.9% | 6.2% | 6.7% |
| 2/13/2024 | -7.9% | -6.4% | -2.8% |
| 10/25/2023 | 2.8% | 0.8% | 19.5% |
| 7/25/2023 | 1.4% | -1.2% | -8.2% |
| 4/25/2023 | 1.3% | 3.5% | 3.6% |
| 1/31/2023 | 2.7% | 0.1% | -7.7% |
| 10/25/2022 | 5.2% | 8.4% | 20.8% |
| 7/26/2022 | -1.4% | 5.8% | 3.0% |
| 5/2/2022 | -4.9% | -5.1% | -4.5% |
| 2/10/2022 | 2.0% | -3.7% | -11.1% |
| 10/28/2021 | 3.6% | -1.6% | -2.0% |
| Statistic | 1D | 5D | 21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| # Positive | 14 | 11 | 10 |
| # Negative | 6 | 9 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 2.4% | 3.5% | 4.6% |
| Median Negative | -3.2% | -1.6% | -4.1% |
| Max Positive | 6.5% | 8.4% | 20.8% |
| Max Negative | -7.9% | -6.4% | -11.4% |
Does The First Move Carry On?
Another approach is to wait for the initial reaction and ask whether it tends to continue. The table below shows the correlation between the 1D return and the return over the following 5 and 21 trading days, and between the 5D return and the following 21 trading days. A value near 1 means the first move has tended to continue; near -1, to reverse; near 0, no consistent pattern. None of these correlations is strong enough to trade on: all are below 0.40 in absolute terms over five years, so the early post-earnings move has not reliably predicted what followed.
| History | 1D vs next 5D | 1D vs next 21D | 5D vs next 21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Years | 0.01 | -0.01 | 0.04 |
| 3 Years | 0.03 | -0.15 | -0.23 |
Trading around earnings is a bet on a single event. If you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock such as MCO can offer, consider the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio: about 30 stocks selected for consistent cash generation, strong margins and resilient balance sheets, with a track record of outperforming a benchmark that combines the S&P 500, the S&P MidCap 400, and the Russell 2000.