Can You Justify Buying Marriott Stock Today?

For questions about this article or underlying research, email help@trefis.com.

Buyers are paying a premium for Marriott International (MAR) stock, which currently trades at 41.7 times its earnings over the last twelve months. The S&P 500 carries a multiple of 22.8 times. Investors are paying this multiple even though Marriott’s revenue grew 5.2% a year on average over the last three twelve-month periods, trailing the S&P 500’s 6.1% on the same measure. So how fast would Marriott have to grow for today’s price simply to hold?

How Fast Would Marriott Have To Grow?

To justify today’s price, Marriott would need to grow its revenue about 11.2% a year for four years. That compares with a 5.8% pace over the last twelve months. Even hitting that faster target would only keep the company’s market value flat as the P/E comes down. This calculation also leaves out dividends and share buybacks for someone buying today.

The four years, the P/E and the profit margin are Trefis assumptions. To set the P/E target, Trefis gives 60% of the weight to 18.0 times earnings, the level used for consumer discretionary companies. The other 40% goes to Marriott’s own average P/E at its last twelve quarter ends, which is 29.3 times.

Marriott closed with a market value of $111 billion on November 4, 2026. Under the blended multiple of 22.5 times earnings, maintaining that valuation requires a yearly profit of $4.92 billion. The company posted an average twelve-month net margin of 10.5% at those past quarter ends, peaking at 13.0%. A margin of 11.8% sits halfway between. At that midpoint, Marriott would need $41.9 billion in revenue to hit the profit target in the twelve months ending September 2030. That compares with revenue of $27.4 billion over the last twelve months. Trefis allows a four-year window because today’s P/E sits at 1.85 times the blended target. Under Trefis rules, a valuation gap of this size receives four years, while a multiple double the target or higher receives five.

Marriott’s Fees Are Growing Faster Than Its Revenue

Revenue climbed 8.0% in the third quarter of 2026 from a year earlier. This marked the fastest expansion of the last five quarters, though it still fell short of the required pace. Gross fee revenues rose 14%, driven by higher revenue per available room (RevPAR), rooms growth and higher co-branded credit card fees, management said.

Management provides guidance for fees rather than total revenue, and it now expects those fees to rise around 13% in 2026. While that projection beats the pace required of total revenue, fees form a smaller base. The 2026 fee guide spans $6.14 billion to $6.15 billion, compared with $27.4 billion of revenue over the last twelve months.

During the November 2, 2026 call, management said it was too early to guide fee growth for 2027. The company’s preliminary view anticipates RevPAR growth of 3.5% to 4.5% in 2027, alongside expected net rooms growth in the mid-single digits over the next several years. Neither metric serves as a revenue forecast.

What Could Make Marriott Stock Harder To Justify?

The required growth is most exposed to the P/E. If Marriott’s P/E settled at the consumer discretionary level instead of the blend, the company would have to grow revenue 17.5% a year under the same four-year timeframe and margin assumptions. If the P/E stayed at the blended target but the net margin held at its current twelve-month 9.7%, Marriott would need 16.7% a year.

Marriott’s recent track record falls short of both the required revenue growth and the assumed margin. Revenue grew 5.2% in the twelve months ended September 2024, followed by 4.7% in the twelve months after that. The twelve-month net margin has stayed between 9.5% and 10.1% at each of the last eight quarter ends, sitting below the margin Trefis assumes.

For today’s price to hold, Marriott would have to grow total revenue well above its recent pace and lift its margin. If revenue growth and the margin stay near recent levels, Marriott would need longer than four years, and a buyer today takes on more risk. At those levels, even six years would not be enough. Marriott is expected to report its fourth-quarter results in February 2027, and total revenue growth over the twelve months is the measure to watch.

Does This Mean You Should Act On MAR?

Our purpose is to inform you with unique data so you make the right investment decisions. That said, betting on a single stock is always risky, no matter which direction you choose.

There is a smarter approach. Since its inception, the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio has returned 105%, beating the benchmark that combines the three major indices – the S&P 500, S&P Mid-cap, and Russell 2000. And it did so without taking the concentrated risk that comes with do-it-yourself stock picking. If that is how you want to invest, the HQ Portfolio is the place to start.

Spot an error or want more like this? Tell us in 10 seconds.