What’s Happening With Live Nation Stock?

LYV: Live Nation Entertainment logo
Live Nation Entertainment

Live Nation Entertainment stock (NYSE: LYV) has declined by around 16% over the last month (around 21 trading days), underperforming the broader S&P 500 which remains down by about 11% over the same period. Now, Live Nation is actually seeing demand roar back, driven by pent-up demand for live events and concerts following the easing of Covid-19 restrictions. Over Q1 2022, revenues grew more than 6x year-over-year to $1.8 billion, with the company indicating that demand for tickets is trending significantly higher versus 2019 levels.  For the full year, the company expects to sell around 70 million tickets, putting it on track for double-digit fan growth compared to 2019 levels. However, the broader markets have been weighed down by concerns of a U.S. recession, surging inflation, and the Federal Reserve’s move to hike rates at a faster than expected pace, and this is likely impacting Live Nation stock, which is heavily dependent on consumer spending trends.

However, now that LYV stock has seen a decline of about 16% over the last month, will it continue its downward trajectory in the near term, or is a recovery imminent? Going by historical performance, there is a reasonable chance of a rise in LYV stock over the next monthOut of 33 instances in the last ten years that LYV stock saw a twenty-one-day decline of 16% or more, 19 of them resulted in LYV stock rising over the subsequent one-month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 19 out of 33, or about 58% chance of a rise in LYV stock over the coming month, implying a somewhat positive near-term outlook for the stock. See our analysis on  Live Nation Stock Chance of A Rise for more details.

While LYV stock has declined recently, there are peers in its sector that look like a better bet than Live Nation. Check out how Live Nation Peers fare on metrics that matter. You will find other valuable comparisons for companies across industries at Peer Comparisons.

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Calculation of ‘Event Probability’ and ‘Chance of Rise’ using last ten years data

  • After moving -2% or more over five days, the stock rose in the next five days on 62% of the occasions.
  • After moving -3.5% or more over ten days, the stock rose in the next ten days on 61% of the occasions
  • After moving -16% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose in the next twenty-one days on 58% of the occasions.

This pattern suggests that LYV stock could see some gains in the near-term.

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Returns May 2022
MTD [1]
YTD [1]
Total [2]
 LYV Return -15% -25% 236%
 S&P 500 Return -6% -18% 74%
 Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio -5% -21% 209%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 5/21/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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