LRN’s Winning Streak May Not Be Over Yet
Stride (LRN) might be a good candidate to ride the momentum. Why? Because you get strong margin, low-debt capital structure, reasonable valuation, and strong momentum. Here is some data.
- Revenue Growth: 17.9% LTM and 12.6% last 3 year average.
- Long-Term Profitability: About 14.2% operating cash flow margin and 12.9% operating margin last 3 year average.
- Strong Momentum: Currently in top 10 percentile of stocks in terms of “trend strength” – our proprietary momentum metric.
- Room To Run: Despite its momentum, the stock is trading 15% below its 52-week high.
While revenue growth helps, this selection is all about riding momentum with quality – which we judge by margins (reflective of pricing power / strong business model) and capital structure (not too debt heavy).
As a quick background, Stride provides proprietary and third-party online curriculum, software, and career learning services to support individualized K-12 education and skill development for various industries globally.
| LRN | S&P Median | |
|---|---|---|
| Sector | Consumer Discretionary | – |
| Industry | Education Services | – |
| PS Ratio | 2.6 | 3.3 |
| PE Ratio | 21.5 | 24.0 |
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| LTM* Revenue Growth | 17.9% | 5.2% |
| 3Y Average Annual Revenue Growth | 12.6% | 5.3% |
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| LTM* Operating Margin | 17.4% | 18.6% |
| 3Y Average Operating Margin | 12.9% | 17.8% |
| LTM* Op Cash Flow Margin | 18.0% | 20.3% |
| 3Y Average Op Cash Flow Margin | 14.2% | 19.8% |
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| DE Ratio | 8.9% | 20.9% |
*LTM: Last Twelve Months
But do these numbers tell the full story? Read Buy or Sell LRN Stock to see if Stride still has an edge that holds up under the hood.
Single stock can be risky, but there is a huge value to a broader diversified approach. If you seek an upside with less volatility than holding an individual stock, consider the High Quality Portfolio (HQ) – HQ has outperformed its benchmark – a combination of S&P 500, Russell, and S&P midcap index, and achieved returns exceeding 91% since its inception. Risk management is key – consider, what could long-term portfolio performance be if you blended 10% commodities, 10% gold, and 2% crypto with HQ’s performance metrics.
Stocks Like These Can Outperform. Here Is Data
Here is how we make the selection: We consider stocks with > $2 Bil in market cap, high operating and cfo (cash flow from operations) margin, no instance of more than 15% revenue decline in the past 5 years, reasonable valuation, low-debt capital structure, and strong momentum as defined by our proprietry momentum metric.
Below are statistics for stocks with this selection strategy applied between 12/31/2016 and 6/30/2025.
- Average 12-month forward returns of nearly 15%
- 12-month win rate (percentage of picks returning positive) of about 60%
But Consider The Risk
That said, LRN isn’t immune to big dips. It fell about 58% during the Global Financial Crisis, almost 49% in the 2018 correction, and about 59% during the Covid crash. Even the inflation shock last year took a notable 33% hit. So while the stock might look solid on paper, the numbers show it’s still vulnerable when the market gets rough.
But the risk is not limited to major market crashes. Stocks fall even when markets are good – think events like earnings, business updates, outlook changes. Read LRN Dip Buyer Analyses to see how the stock has recovered from sharp dips in the past.
The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.