9 Red Days In A Row: Lam Research Stock Is Down 20%

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Shares of Lam Research (LRCX) have closed lower in each of the last 9 sessions, a cumulative decline of 20.2%. That erased about $87.6 billion from the company’s market value, which now stands at about $347.2 billion. The stock closed at $277.46 on Thursday, October 15, 35.9% below its 52-week high of $432.87 and 99.7% above its low of $138.95.

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How The Streak Stacks Up Against The S&P 500

Returns for LRCX and the S&P 500 over the streak and the periods around it, all ending Thursday, October 15 and including dividends:
 

Return Period LRCX S&P 500
1 Day -3.3% 0.3%
9 Days (Current Streak) -20.2% 0.3%
1 Month (21 Trading Days) 3.2% 2.6%
3 Months (63 Trading Days) -11.3% 4.1%
Year To Date 62.6% 14.2%
1 Year (252 Trading Days) 101.5% 17.9%

Is This Move About Lam Research Or The Market?

Over the same 9 trading days, the S&P 500 returned +0.3% including dividends, so the slide is mostly Lam Research’s own story rather than the market’s. 1 other S&P 500 stock is currently on losing streaks of 9 days or longer. Over the past three months the stock is down 11.3%, a window that includes the streak; over the other 54 sessions of that window it was up 11.0%.

What The Numbers Say About The Slide

On the fundamentals, revenue grew 26.0% over the last twelve months, against a median of 17.9% for S&P 500 Information Technology stocks; its operating margin is 35.3%, versus a median of 21.6%; and the stock trades at 47.8 times trailing earnings against a median of 35.6. The read is mixed.

A slide like this raises an obvious follow-up: which marked-down stocks are actually worth buying? Our Buy the Dip screen runs that test every day, flagging beaten-down names whose fundamentals still hold up.

Prefer the theme to the single name? A semiconductor ETF like SMH holds the whole group, not just this stock. It is still a concentrated bet on one theme, which is the gap the portfolio below is built to close.

Weakness In One Name Should Be Noise, Not News

For a diversified holder, a streak like this is a data point. For a concentrated one, it is a hole in the plan. The difference is never the stock; it is the portfolio built around it.

Building that portfolio is what the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio does: roughly 30 businesses with the cash generation and balance-sheet strength to absorb a bad month, selected and rebalanced by rules. It has a track record of outpacing a benchmark that combines the S&P 500, the S&P MidCap 400, and the Russell 2000. Make the next streak, in either direction, someone else’s drama.