Management Guided Higher For KLA Stock; Does The Chart Agree?
KLA (KLAC) guided to higher revenue for its September 2026 quarter when it reported results on July 28, 2026. The stock is still 1.4% below its close before that release, while the S&P 500 has gained 3.4%. A higher forecast beside a lower share price is a reason to look at the chart before taking the guide at face value. So is KLA stock still in an uptrend?
KLA Stock Is Above Both Averages, Below Pre-Release Close
Partly. KLA stock closed at $200.33 on October 1, 2026. Its 50-day average, the average closing price over the last fifty trading days, was lower at $187.38. That average is itself above the 200-day average of $177.08, the same measure over a longer stretch. A stock above both averages, with the shorter one on top, is in an uptrend by the usual reading.
KLA has not won back its drop around the release, though. From its close before the release, the stock fell 16.3% in two sessions, while the S&P 500 fell 1.3%. That reaction priced the whole release, the June quarter’s results, and the guide together. KLA has gained 17.8% since then, against 4.8% for the index, and that still falls short of making up the drop.
What KLA Management Guided In July
Management guided to revenue of $4 billion, plus or minus $200 million, for the September 2026 quarter. KLA reported $3.66 billion for the June quarter, which management called a record. So the guide is a forecast of a step up from a record quarter, and it is not a result yet.
KLA sells the systems chipmakers use to scale up production and keep it running, and its main business, Semiconductor Process Control, brought in 90% of fiscal 2025 revenue. Management credited the June quarter’s revenue to faster investment in AI infrastructure and to strength in leading-edge chips.
Management also now expects revenue from its advanced packaging process control systems to reach about $1.1 billion in calendar 2026, up more than 70% from a year earlier. Its earlier expectation was growth in the high 50% range.
What Could Extend Or Break KLA Stock’s Uptrend?
The September quarter’s results are the next thing that could extend or break the uptrend. Management expects KLA to grow about 20% from the first half of calendar 2026 to the second. It said shortages of materials that take a long time to obtain held back the first half.
Margins are where a quarter could fall short. Management’s non-GAAP gross margin guide for the September 2026 quarter was 62.5%, plus or minus 1 percentage point. KLA reported 62.4% for the June quarter, so management forecast almost no improvement. It said KLA has been buying memory chips at higher prices, and that this headwind likely continues through 2027.
KLA shares trade at 56.0 times earnings, against 21.5 for the S&P 500, which suggests buyers are already paying for growth.
Revenue at or above the midpoint of the guide would show KLA turning AI infrastructure demand into sales at the pace management forecast. A close back below its 50-day average would mean the recovery since July’s drop has stalled.
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