How Will Intel Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) is set to report its earnings on Thursday, July 23, 2026. The company has $536 billion in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $54 billion, and it was operationally profitable with $1.1 billion in operating profits and net income of -$3.2 billion. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
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Separately, the Trefis High Quality Portfolio has outperformed its benchmark to achieve returns exceeding 105% since its inception.
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Intel’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 7 positive and 13 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 35% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 42% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 7 positive returns = 7.8%, and median of the 13 negative returns = -8.5%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 4/23/2026 | 23.6% | 41.5% | 79.5% |
| 1/22/2026 | -17.0% | -10.4% | -19.7% |
| 10/23/2025 | 0.3% | 5.2% | -9.6% |
| 7/24/2025 | -8.5% | -12.5% | 9.6% |
| 4/24/2025 | -6.7% | -7.0% | -6.7% |
| 1/30/2025 | -2.9% | -3.1% | 13.6% |
| 10/31/2024 | 7.8% | 21.9% | 11.2% |
| 8/1/2024 | -26.1% | -29.0% | -23.6% |
| 4/25/2024 | -9.2% | -13.1% | -12.1% |
| 1/25/2024 | -11.9% | -12.5% | -13.0% |
| 10/26/2023 | 9.3% | 15.9% | 36.0% |
| 7/27/2023 | 6.6% | 0.9% | -3.4% |
| 4/27/2023 | 4.0% | 5.1% | -2.5% |
| 1/26/2023 | -6.4% | 0.3% | -16.2% |
| 10/27/2022 | 10.7% | 4.3% | 10.8% |
| 7/28/2022 | -8.6% | -9.3% | -15.1% |
| 4/28/2022 | -6.9% | -4.0% | -4.1% |
| 1/26/2022 | -7.0% | -4.2% | -7.0% |
| 10/21/2021 | -11.7% | -14.1% | -11.0% |
| 7/22/2021 | -5.3% | -4.0% | -6.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 7 | 8 | 6 |
| # Negative | 13 | 12 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 7.8% | 5.1% | 12.4% |
| Median Negative | -8.5% | -9.9% | -10.3% |
| Max Positive | 23.6% | 41.5% | 79.5% |
| Max Negative | -26.1% | -29.0% | -23.6% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 65.1% | 53.4% | 15.7% |
| 3Y History | 77.2% | 60.1% | 15.5% |
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