After A Strong Week, Can Intel Stock Sustain Its Performance?

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Intel Corporation stock (NASDAQ: INTC) is up almost 5% in the past week (five trading days), performing better than the S&P 500 which was up around 2% over this period. However, if you look at the change over the last ten days and one month, the stock has returned -1.6% and -7.9%, performing much worse than the broader markets. Intel’s most recent Q1 ’22 earnings, saw revenue dropping from $19.7 billion in Q1 ’21 to $18.4 billion in Q1 ’22. However, a $3.4 billion drop in restructuring and other charges saw operating income rise from $3.69 billion to $4.34 billion over this period. Combined with a rise in gains from equity investments, net income soared, and EPS came in higher from $0.83 in Q1 ’21 to $1.99 in Q1 ’22. Additionally, with Q2 ’22 earnings at the end of this month, Intel stock has bounced back with the broader markets this past week.

Now, is INTC stock set to continue its rally or could we expect a pullback? We believe that there is a decent 58% chance of a rise in Intel stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on INTC Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about the company’s historical returns and comparison to peers, see Intel (INTC) Stock Return. Additionally, for details about INTC revenue and comparison to peers, see Intel (INTC) Revenue Comparison.

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Twenty-One Day: INTC -7.9%, vs. S&P500 -5.5%; Underperformed market

(11% likelihood event; 58% probability of rise over next 21 days)

  • INTC stock lost 7.9% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) fall of 5.5%
  • A change of -7.9% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 11% likelihood event, which has occurred 266 times out of 2515 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 266 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 154 occasions
  • This points to a 58% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: INTC -1.6%, vs. S&P500 -0.4%; Underperformed market

(29% likelihood event; 54% probability of rise over next 10 days)

  • INTC stock dropped 1.6% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) marginal drop of 0.4%
  • A change of -1.6% or more over ten trading days is a 29% likelihood event, which has occurred 734 times out of 2515 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 734 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 397 occasions
  • This points to a 54% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: INTC 4.5%, vs. S&P500 1.9%; Outperformed market

(8% likelihood event; 54% probability of rise over next five days)

  • INTC stock rose 4.5% over a five-day trading period ending 7/8/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which was up 1.9% over this period.
  • A change of 4.5% or more over five trading days (one week) is an 8% likelihood event, which has occurred 191 times out of 2515 in the last ten years
  • Of these 191 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 103 occasions
  • This points to a 54% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

With inflation rising and the Fed raising interest rates, Intel Stock has fallen 35% this year. Can it drop more? See how low can INTC stock go by comparing its decline in previous market crashes. Here is a performance summary of all stocks in previous market crashes.

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Our high-quality portfolio and multi-strategy portfolio have beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

 Returns Jul 2022
MTD [1]
2022
YTD [1]
2017-22
Total [2]
 INTC Return 2% -26% 5%
 S&P 500 Return 3% -18% 74%
 Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio 6% -18% 221%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 7/10/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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