Up 5% In A Fortnight, Can HP Inc. Stock Continue Outperforming The Market?

-31.94%
Downside
28.57
Market
19.45
Trefis
HPQ: Hewlett logo
HPQ
Hewlett

HP Inc. stock (NYSE: HPQ) is up almost 5% in the past two weeks (ten trading days), outperforming the S&P 500 which was up just around 1% over this period. If you look at the change over the last five days and one month, too, the stock has dropped 0.7% and 3.8% respectively, but has still performed better than the broader markets on both occasions. HP’s most recent Q1 ’22 earnings (HP’s fiscal year ends in October) saw revenue rise to $17 billion, up from $15.6 billion in Q1 ’21. However, a faster rise in cost of sales meant that operating income grew only marginally from $1.32 billion to $1.36 billion over this period. Despite this, a 15% drop in the outstanding share count boosted EPS, which rose from $0.83 in Q1 ’21 to $1.00 in Q1 ’22.

Now, is HP Inc. stock set to continue its outperformance or could we expect a pullback? We believe that there is a decent 56% chance of a rise in HPQ stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on HPQ Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about the company’s historical returns and comparison to peers, see HP Inc. (HPQ) Stock Return. Additionally, for details about HPQ revenue and comparison to peers, see HP Inc. (HPQ) Revenue Comparison.

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Twenty-One Day: HPQ -3.8%, vs. S&P500 -4.5%; Outperformed market

(27% likelihood event; 56% probability of rise over next 21 days)

  • HPQ stock dropped 3.8% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of -4.5%
  • A change of -3.8% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 27% likelihood event, which has occurred 668 times out of 2515 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 668 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 372 occasions
  • This points to a 56% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: HPQ 4.4%, vs. S&P500 1.3%; Outperformed market

(28% likelihood event; 53% probability of rise over next 10 days)

  • HPQ stock gained 4.4% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 1.3%
  • A change of 4.4% or more over ten trading days is a 28% likelihood event, which has occurred 696 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 696 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 366 occasions
  • This points to a 53% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: HPQ -0.7%, vs. S&P500 -2.4%; Outperformed market

(35% likelihood event; 54% probability of rise over next five days)

  • HPQ stock dropped a marginal 0.7% over a five-day trading period ending 3/9/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which was down around 2.4% over this period.
  • A change of -0.7% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 35% likelihood event, which has occurred 870 times out of 2515 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 870 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 470 occasions
  • This points to a 54% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high-quality portfolio that’s beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

Returns Mar 2022
MTD [1]
2022
YTD [1]
2017-22
Total [2]
 HPQ Return 5% -4% 143%
 S&P 500 Return -2% -10% 91%
 Trefis MS Portfolio Return -3% -13% 244%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 3/10/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

 

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