Can Hecla Mining Stock Hit $20?
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Shares of Hecla Mining (HL) ended October 29, 2026, at $14.45, down 16.0% from their October 2 close. The decline has dip buyers asking whether to step in. Returning to $20 would require a rise of about 38%, a climb the stock has made before. Following previous steep declines, Hecla’s best price over the next year landed a median 40.5% higher than the price on the day of the drop. But how often were buyers of those drops still ahead a year later?
How Hecla Stock Fared A Year After Past Drops
Investors who bought Hecla during past sharp drops came out ahead a year later just over half the time. Since the start of 2010, the company has recorded 38 drops of this kind. Each involved a fall of more than 20% within 30 trading days, with the most recent occurring on October 7. Thirty-five of those drops have a full year behind them. Nineteen left the stock higher about a year, or 252 trading days, later, posting a median gain of 8%. The three drops from 2026 are too recent to judge. Results varied widely: the stock traded 311% higher a year after its May 2025 drop, yet it stood 47% lower a year after its July 2021 drop.
Holding the stock was rarely smooth. Over the year following a drop, Hecla’s lowest close landed a median 27.7% below the price on the day of the decline. Most buyers therefore sat through a further fall. The best price arrived a median 246 days, or about eight months, after the drop.
| Time after a past dip | Past dips with that much time after them | Median HL price change |
|---|---|---|
| 21 trading days | 37 | -1.0% |
| 63 trading days | 37 | 7.0% |
| 126 trading days | 36 | -1.0% |
| 252 trading days | 35 | 8.0% |
| Dip date | HL price change over the 30 trading days to the dip date | SPY price change over the same days | HL price change 252 trading days after the dip date | Highest price in those 252 trading days, against the dip-date price | Calendar days to that highest price | Lowest price in those 252 trading days, against the dip-date price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 | -21.6% | 1.0% | window not complete | window not complete | window not complete | window not complete |
| 2026-06-08 | -20.8% | 4.0% | window not complete | window not complete | window not complete | window not complete |
| 2026-03-04 | -22.9% | 1.0% | window not complete | window not complete | window not complete | window not complete |
| 2025-05-02 | -22.4% | 1.0% | 311.0% | 601.7% | 266 | 0% |
| 2024-12-02 | -25.9% | 3.0% | 194.0% | 225.2% | 365 | -15.9% |
| 2024-01-17 | -21.1% | 3.0% | 34.0% | 86.8% | 279 | -16.8% |
| 2023-08-21 | -23.5% | 0% | 51.0% | 54.1% | 330 | -17.8% |
| 2023-05-24 | -20.4% | 1.0% | 7.0% | 18.5% | 362 | -36.0% |
| 2023-03-09 | -20.5% | -2.0% | -16.0% | 35.1% | 35 | -34.0% |
| 2022-09-26 | -23.9% | -14.0% | 10.0% | 97.8% | 199 | -1.7% |
| 2022-07-05 | -22.8% | -2.0% | 41.0% | 92.6% | 282 | -4.3% |
| 2022-04-27 | -21.5% | -2.0% | 16.0% | 32.4% | 351 | -34.2% |
| 2021-12-14 | -20.6% | 1.0% | 16.0% | 50.9% | 120 | -27.7% |
| 2021-07-08 | -21.3% | 3.0% | -47.0% | 4.9% | 279 | -47.5% |
| 2020-09-29 | -20.4% | -1.0% | 8.0% | 84.4% | 246 | -9.7% |
| 2020-03-09 | -29.4% | -17.0% | 168.0% | 228.0% | 352 | -28.4% |
| 2019-05-09 | -26.9% | 3.0% | 51.0% | 94.6% | 273 | -28.7% |
| 2019-04-02 | -23.5% | 3.0% | -24.0% | 54.5% | 310 | -43.4% |
| 2018-10-31 | -21.1% | -7.0% | -2.0% | 22.2% | 70 | -47.3% |
| 2018-08-02 | -21.9% | 2.0% | -32.0% | 4.0% | 7 | -57.7% |
| 2017-11-13 | -23.1% | 2.0% | -43.0% | 14.3% | 59 | -43.4% |
| 2017-03-07 | -23.5% | 5.0% | -22.0% | 22.8% | 76 | -29.7% |
| 2016-12-21 | -26.3% | 6.0% | -25.0% | 27.3% | 47 | -34.3% |
| 2016-09-27 | -20.9% | -1.0% | -9.0% | 29.3% | 43 | -16.7% |
| 2016-01-19 | -22.8% | -8.0% | 300.0% | 377.2% | 295 | 0% |
| 2015-11-17 | -20.3% | 4.0% | 235.0% | 296.4% | 358 | -16.9% |
| 2015-07-01 | -22.7% | -2.0% | 110.0% | 109.9% | 365 | -37.6% |
| 2014-09-30 | -25.0% | 0.0% | -20.0% | 40.5% | 114 | -26.7% |
| 2013-10-08 | -20.8% | 0.0% | -16.0% | 18.8% | 133 | -21.8% |
| 2013-07-11 | -21.8% | 2.0% | 17.0% | 29.4% | 43 | -10.3% |
| 2013-03-04 | -28.5% | 3.0% | -15.0% | 7.6% | 8 | -34.3% |
| 2012-05-15 | -20.9% | -6.0% | -14.0% | 83.9% | 135 | -18.0% |
| 2012-04-05 | -21.4% | 3.0% | -9.0% | 60.7% | 175 | -15.5% |
| 2011-12-28 | -23.0% | 0.0% | 17.0% | 37.1% | 274 | -25.5% |
| 2011-09-23 | -23.2% | -3.0% | 19.0% | 21.4% | 364 | -33.9% |
| 2011-06-09 | -20.7% | -5.0% | -39.0% | 12.2% | 39 | -50.0% |
| 2011-01-25 | -21.3% | 4.0% | -40.0% | 28.3% | 31 | -45.0% |
| 2010-01-21 | -20.1% | 1.0% | 68.0% | 112.8% | 342 | -15.2% |
| Median of 35 complete windows | – | – | 8.0% | 40.5% | 246 | -27.7% |
How Strong Is Hecla’s Business Today?
Hecla’s latest quarter reveals a business earning far more than it did a year earlier. The company posted revenue of $334 million in the June quarter of fiscal 2026, up 52.4% from the prior year. Operating margins reached 44.0%, compared to 26.9% in the same period a year earlier. Hecla finished June holding $485 million in cash and short-term investments alongside almost no debt. Investors currently pay 29.0 times trailing earnings for the stock, compared to 22.8 for the S&P 500, meaning buyers are paying a premium to the broader market for that strength.
Revenue did decline from the $411 million generated in the March quarter. During an August 5 call, management offered two reasons: metal prices had pulled back from their highs early in the year, and Greens Creek produced some silver concentrate that remained unsold at the end of June. Management said that the silver shipped in early August and would appear in third-quarter results, which Hecla is expected to report in November 2026.
What Are You Betting On By Buying Hecla?
Buying the stock today means betting this drop ends like the past ones that paid off rather than the ones that did not. It also requires a willingness to hold through a further fall, as most earlier buyers had to do. You are also betting that Hecla’s margins stay close to the June quarter’s level as metal prices rise and fall. The company’s third-quarter revenue is the figure to watch in that November report.
What Would Another Fall In Hecla Mining Do To Your Plan?
A fall hurts most when one stock is a large part of what you own, and selling it to spread the risk can bring a large tax bill. Our partner advisory firm offers a free strategy review of ways to put a floor under a large position and unwind it with less tax.
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