How Will Heico Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?

Heico (NYSE:HEI), an aerospace and electronics company, is scheduled to report its earnings on Tuesday, June 3, 2025. For event-driven traders, understanding historical stock performance around earnings can be a key factor, though actual results will heavily influence the outcome. There are two main strategies to consider if you’re looking to leverage historical patterns:

• Pre-Earnings Positioning: You can analyze the historical probabilities and potentially take a position before the earnings are announced.
• Post-Earnings Positioning: Alternatively, you can examine the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns after the earnings release, and then adjust your position accordingly.

It’s worth noting that over the past five years, Heico has experienced negative one-day returns after earnings announcements in 53% of instances. The median decline has been -3.1%, with a maximum one-day drop of -8.7%.

Analysts are forecasting Heico to report earnings of $1.12 per share on sales of $1.11 billion. This would be an increase from the year-ago quarter, when the company reported earnings of $0.97 per share on sales of $992 million. Fundamentally, Heico has a current market capitalization of $42 billion. Over the last twelve months, the company generated $4.0 billion in revenue and was operationally profitable, with $871 million in operating profits and a net income of $567 million.That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio presents an alternative — having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception. Separately, see – Buy, Sell, or Hold HIMS Stock?

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Heico’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

• There are 19 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 9 positive and 10 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 47% of the time.
• Notably, this percentage increases to 50% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
• Median of the 9 positive returns = 0.6%, and median of the 10 negative returns = -3.1%

Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.

HEI 1D, 5D, and 21D Post-Earnings Return

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.

HEI Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns

Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?

Sometimes, peer performance can have influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Heico stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Heico. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.

HEI Correlation With Peer Earnings

Learn more about Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (combination of all 3, the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), to produce strong returns for investors. Separately, if you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock like Heico, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P, and clocked >91% returns since inception.

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