Is Anthropic’s IPO A Worse Bet Than Google’s?
For questions about this article or underlying research, email help@trefis.com.
In August 2004, Google went public at $85 a share. The company was worth about $23 billion. Plenty of smart people thought that was crazy for a search engine with a funny name. Today Alphabet is worth $3.4 trillion. That’s about 150 times more.
On October 26, Anthropic, the company behind the AI assistant Claude, filed its own IPO papers. So the question every investor is asking is simple: is this Google in 2004?
Let’s put the two side by side. Same moment, the IPO. Twenty-two years apart.
| Google at IPO (2004) | Anthropic at IPO (2026) | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last year | $1.47B (2003) | $4.59B (2025) |
| Revenue so far this year | $1.35B (first half 2004) | $16.3B (first half 2026) |
| Growth | +141% (first half) | +1,300% (first half) |
| Operating profit | $342M a year, 23% margin | $974M in its best quarter, 8% margin |
| Value at IPO | about $23B | $1.5T–$2T (press estimates) |
12 times the revenue. 65 to 87 times the price.
Anthropic is the bigger, faster business. But Google’s IPO buyers paid about 16 times its revenue. Anthropic’s will pay 76 to 101 times. That gap decides your return.
See more lines: cash, people, spending commitments
| Google at IPO (2004) | Anthropic at IPO (2026) | |
|---|---|---|
| Operating profit, latest half-year | profitable throughout | −$693M (first half; Q1 loss, Q2 profit) |
| Cash from operations | about $371M (first half 2004) | $3.9B (first half 2026) |
| Employees | about 2,300 | 5,300 |
| Spending it has committed to | $319M of capex (all of 2004) | at least $417B of compute contracts |
| Value ÷ trailing revenue | about 16x | about 76x–101x |
Anthropic trailing revenue = H2 2025 ($3.4B) + H1 2026 ($16.3B) = $19.7B. Google = 2003 revenue. 12x = $16.3B ÷ $1.35B; 65x–87x = $1.5T–$2T ÷ $23B.
What’s Similar, And What’s Different
Start with what’s similar. Both were growing faster than anything their size had ever grown. Both were run by founders who kept control. Google had its dual-class shares and a founders’ letter that warned Wall Street it would not chase quarterly numbers. Anthropic goes further: the founders’ shares carry 50.1% of the votes, and all Class A shareholders, public buyers included, share the other 49.9%. Both were mocked as overpriced. And both reached an operating profit before going public: Google on day one, Anthropic only in its latest reported quarter.
Now what’s different. Three things, and they’re big.
One: Anthropic is the better business, today. Its half-year revenue is 12 times Google’s at the same stage. Its customers are businesses that pay, not advertisers bidding on clicks. More than 1,900 of them pay over $1 million a year. Existing customers spend about nine times what they did a year ago. Google in 2004 never had a number like that.
Two: Anthropic needs vastly more capital. Google built its empire on cheap servers. In 2004 it spent $319 million on capex, about a tenth of revenue. Anthropic has signed at least $417 billion of compute contracts with Amazon, Google, Microsoft, SpaceX and others. That’s more than 25 times its latest half-year revenue. Google was a toll road that cost little to build. Anthropic is a toll road it has to keep repaving.
Three: the price. Google went public at about 16 times its trailing revenue. Anthropic, at the valuations being discussed, would go public at 76 to 101 times. Even on its latest quarter run at full speed, $46 billion a year, it’s 32 to 43 times.
Can Anthropic Do What Google Did?
So here’s the uncomfortable math. For Anthropic to do for you what Google did, rise 150 times, it would have to be worth $225 to $300 trillion. That’s well above the value of every listed company on Earth today. It can’t happen. Not because the business is worse. Because the starting price already counts most of the success.
That’s also why one hot stock is a hard thing to build a family’s wealth on. Even the giants fall hard: in 2022, Meta dropped 77% from its 2021 peak and Nvidia 66%. For families with $1 million or more to invest, the mix between growth stocks and steadier value and defensive ones often matters more than any single pick. Trefis partner firms can help you set that mix.
Better business. Worse bet. Anthropic in 2026 is a stronger company than Google was in 2004 on almost every number. But Google’s IPO buyers were paid for being early and right. Anthropic’s IPO buyers are paying today for success that hasn’t happened yet.
Does that make Anthropic a bad investment? No. A 3x from $2 trillion is still a fortune, and nobody knows how big AI gets. It does mean the Google story is the wrong lens. The right question isn’t “is this the next Google?” It’s “what has to go right for this price to work?”
And there’s a twist. The cheapest way to own a piece of Anthropic may be to buy Google. Alphabet reportedly owns about 14% of it. More on that in Buy Google Stock Or The Anthropic IPO?
The next question: the AI boom looks a lot like the dot-com boom, so isn’t Amazon the better comparison? We line them up in Anthropic IPO: 1997 Amazon Or 1999 Amazon?
Thinking About Buying The Anthropic IPO?
If you’d use money from your tech gains, three things come first: taxes, how much rides on one stock, and timing. Learn what families with $1 million or more should weigh with a Trefis partner firm.
Spot an error or want more like this? Tell us in 10 seconds.