Alphabet Reports Soon: How Has The Stock Reacted To Past Earnings?
Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) is scheduled to report its earnings on Wednesday, October 28, 2026. The company has a market value of about $3.85 trillion. Over the last twelve months it generated $445.9 billion in revenue and $147.6 billion in operating profit, with a GAAP net income of $244.2 billion.
The reaction will turn on how the results and guidance land against expectations. Before the release, it helps to know how the stock has behaved after previous reports, and whether an early move has tended to carry on.
See the earnings reaction history of all stocks
Alphabet’s Historical Odds Of A Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns, measured from the last close before each release:
- There are 19 earnings releases in the last five years, with 10 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns. Positive 1D returns were seen 53% of the time.
- Over the last three years that share rises to 55%, across 11 releases.
- The median of the 10 positive 1D returns is 4.3%, and the median of the 9 negative ones is -7.1%.
- The largest one-day reactions were 10.2% and -9.5%.
The table below shows the 1D, 5-day (5D) and 21-day (21D) returns after each release, followed by summary statistics.
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7/22/2026 | -7.1% | -1.6% | -0.4% |
| 4/29/2026 | 10.0% | 13.7% | 8.7% |
| 2/4/2026 | -0.5% | -6.6% | -10.4% |
| 10/29/2025 | 2.5% | 3.5% | 16.6% |
| 7/23/2025 | 1.0% | 3.3% | 5.0% |
| 4/24/2025 | 1.7% | 1.3% | 5.8% |
| 2/4/2025 | -7.3% | -10.2% | -16.5% |
| 10/29/2024 | 2.8% | 0.04% | -0.3% |
| 7/23/2024 | -5.0% | -6.3% | -8.8% |
| 4/25/2024 | 10.2% | 6.8% | 12.2% |
| 1/30/2024 | -7.5% | -4.9% | -8.6% |
| 10/24/2023 | -9.5% | -10.6% | -0.2% |
| 7/25/2023 | 5.8% | 7.6% | 8.3% |
| 4/20/2023 | 0.1% | 2.2% | 16.6% |
| 2/2/2023 | -2.7% | -11.8% | -11.7% |
| 10/25/2022 | -9.1% | -13.4% | -5.8% |
| 7/26/2022 | 7.7% | 9.6% | 8.3% |
| 4/26/2022 | -3.7% | -1.1% | -10.8% |
| 2/1/2022 | 7.5% | 1.3% | -2.7% |
| Statistic | 1D | 5D | 21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| # Positive | 10 | 10 | 8 |
| # Negative | 9 | 9 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 4.3% | 3.4% | 8.5% |
| Median Negative | -7.1% | -6.6% | -8.6% |
| Max Positive | 10.2% | 13.7% | 16.6% |
| Max Negative | -9.5% | -13.4% | -16.5% |
Do Early Post-Earnings Moves Continue?
Another approach is to wait for the initial reaction and ask whether it tends to continue. The table below shows the correlation between the 1D return and the return over the following 5 and 21 trading days, and between the 5D return and the following 21 trading days. A value near 1 means the first move has tended to continue; near -1, to reverse; near 0, no consistent pattern. None of these correlations is strong enough to trade on. All five-year figures are below 0.40, and the highest three-year figure, 0.40 for 5D vs next 21D, rests on only 11 releases.
| History | 1D vs next 5D | 1D vs next 21D | 5D vs next 21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Years | 0.10 | -0.01 | 0.04 |
| 3 Years | -0.06 | 0.21 | 0.40 |
Do Peers That Report First Offer A Clue?
Netflix (NFLX) usually reports a few days before Alphabet, and has already reported this season: its shares fell 5.3% the day after its October 20 report. The table compares Netflix’s one-day reaction to its own earnings with Alphabet’s one-day reaction to the report that followed. The correlation is -0.41; the closer to 1, the more the peer’s reaction has foreshadowed Alphabet’s, and a clearly negative value means it has tended to point the other way.
| GOOGL Earnings Date | GOOGL 1D | NFLX 1D |
|---|---|---|
| 7/22/2026 | -7.1% | -7.3% |
| 4/29/2026 | 10.0% | -9.7% |
| 2/4/2026 | -0.5% | -2.2% |
| 10/29/2025 | 2.5% | -10.1% |
| 7/23/2025 | 1.0% | -5.1% |
| 4/24/2025 | 1.7% | 1.5% |
| 2/4/2025 | -7.3% | 9.7% |
| 10/29/2024 | 2.8% | 11.1% |
| 7/23/2024 | -5.0% | -1.5% |
| 4/25/2024 | 10.2% | -9.1% |
| 1/30/2024 | -7.5% | 10.7% |
| 10/24/2023 | -9.5% | 16.1% |
| 7/25/2023 | 5.8% | -8.4% |
| 4/20/2023 | 0.1% | -3.2% |
| 2/2/2023 | -2.7% | 8.5% |
| 10/25/2022 | -9.1% | 13.1% |
| 7/26/2022 | 7.7% | 7.3% |
| 4/26/2022 | -3.7% | -35.1% |
| 2/1/2022 | 7.5% | -21.8% |
| Correlation | – | -0.41 |
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