Can Fate Therapeutics Continue Its Rally After A 16% Move In 5 Days?

February 10th, 2021 · by Trefis Team
FATEYTD+136.1%SPYYTD+13.5%XLVYTD+8.3%
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The stock price of Fate Therapeutics (FATE) has seen a solid 16% rise over the last five trading days, while it’s up 13% over the last ten trading days, and we believe the rally may continue in the near term. The rise can largely be attributed to increased investor expectations from Fate’s pipeline, which focuses on a class of treatment that is based on Natural Killer (NK) cells. While the usual process is to create a different batch for each patient from their own stem cells, Fate is intending for mass production of such treatment. The company is currently working on multiple programs, including FT500, FT516, FT-ONO2, and FATE-NK100 for the treatment of advanced solid tumors. It has seen positive findings from early trials for FT500, something that has kept the stock price buzzing of late.

The 16% rise for FATE stock compares with 4% gains seen in the broader S&P 500 index. Now, is FATE stock poised to gain further? It appears so. While we believe that FATE stock is richly valued, the market potential is huge, especially in multi-billion dollar – oncology treatments. Given the current momentum in the stock, and based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last few years, we believe that there is an 64% chance of a rise in FATE stock over the next month (twenty one trading days). See our analysis on Fate Therapeutics Stock Chances of Rise for more details.

Five Day: FATE 16%, vs. S&P500 4%; Outperformed market

(9% likelihood event)

  • Fate Therapeutics stock rose 16% over a 5-day trading period ending 2/8/2021, compared to broader market (S&P500) rise of 4.0%
  • A change of 16% or more over 5 trading days is a 9% likelihood event, which has occurred 114 times out of 1256 in the last 5 years

Ten Day: FATE 13%, vs. S&P500 1.8%; Outperformed market

(20% likelihood event)

  • Fate Therapeutics stock rose 13% over the last 10 trading days (2 weeks), compared to broader market (S&P500) rise of 1.8%
  • A change of 13% or more over 10 trading days is a 20% likelihood event, which has occurred 252 times out of 1240 in the last 5 years

While FATE stock could gain more, 2020 has also created many pricing discontinuities which can offer attractive trading opportunities. For example, you’ll be surprised how counter-intuitive the stock valuation is for Pfizer vs Merck.

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